Premier League Power Rankings: Chelsea up, Liverpool down in ratings of all 20 teams

ESPN’s second monthly Premier League Power Rankings are out, and the numbers say the gap between the haves and the have-nots has never been tighter. Using a Gini-coefficient-style lens borrowed from Italian data analyst Roberto Angioni, the league’s inequality index has fallen to 52.5 %, its lowest mark in nine seasons and comfortably below LaLiga’s 56.7 %. Translation: almost every weekend now carries genuine jeopardy for the elite.

The model itself remains deliberately lean: Transfermarkt squad values, non-penalty expected-goal differential, passes-per-defensive-action (PPDA) and final-third pass-completion rate are fed into a blender to produce a single predictive score. The fun, as ever, is in spotting where the algorithm diverges from the table and asking why.

Arsenal still sit top of the rankings despite dropping seven points from the last 18. Their +0.55 non-penalty xG differential over the past five matchdays is the best in the division, and their lead atop the real table means they remain title favourites even if Manchester City win the game that sits in their back pocket.

City’s rating has nudged upward after January spending bumped their market value, and a slightly more aggressive press—PPDA trending down—has crept into their last handful of games. Whether the arrivals of Marc Guéhi and Antoine Semenyo can sustain that intensity will determine whether Pep Guardiola’s side really do “control their destiny” in the run-in.

Chelsea are the rankings’ big climbers. Liam Rosenior’s side now press high, resist the opposition press, and—crucially—are out-creating opponents on a consistent basis. A squad stuffed with nine-figure valuations helps, but the fixture list is brutal: Chelsea still face every other top-six side in the model plus Aston Villa, giving them the toughest remaining schedule in the league.

Liverpool, by contrast, have slipped. Their underlying metrics remain sound, but a kind run-in—West Ham, Wolves, Tottenham, Brighton, Fulham, Everton and Crystal Palace—means the model sees limited upside for Jurgen Klopp’s men to boost their score before the final month’s defining clashes against United and Villa.

Manchester United sit 11th in the table yet sixth in the power rankings. Michael Carrick’s interim reign has produced a +0.56 non-penalty xG differential across six games, an improvement on Ruben Amorim’s +0.35. Kobbie Mainoo’s increased minutes, a less frenetic press and calmer build-up play are the clearest tactical tweaks.

Newcastle are the poster-child for the rankings’ skepticism of raw points. A minus-1 goal differential through 27 matches leaves them 12th here, but their Champions League last-16 berth and underlying talent suggest few teams will relish a trip to St James’ Park.

Brighton’s eighth-place ranking feels generous for a side 14th in the table, yet their plus-2 goal differential and proactive style—high press, high possession—both inflate their numbers and the market value of their players.

Tottenham’s talent-rich squad is theoretically the fifth-most valuable in the division, but the algorithm is not fooled. Zero players inside the top 50 for passing accuracy and a disjointed squad build leave Spurs flirting with relegation odds as high as 17 %.

Aston Villa are the biggest risers. Unai Emery’s men have edged away from the “no press, no possession” quadrant and posted the league’s seventh-most points since the last update. A daunting slate—City, Arsenal, Liverpool, United and Newcastle still to come—means their new-found momentum will be stress-tested.

Bournemouth remain within five points of fifth despite a modest ranking, buoyed by a run-in that features six of the current bottom seven. Nottingham Forest’s early bounce under Vitor Pereira has faded; their xG differential now barely surpasses West Ham’s and the gap between the two has shrunk to two points.

Fulham’s strange cocktail of deep, slow build-up and almost no pressing is good enough for a fourth consecutive season outside the relegation conversation, while Leeds are surviving on goals: only Villa have scored more among the bottom half, but a minus-7 xG differential and the league’s third-oldest squad hint at a summer rebuild.

West Ham’s upward creep and Forest’s slide illustrate why the model resists over-weighting recent form. Burnley, meanwhile, have become the division’s basement standard: terrible results, worse underlying numbers, and a final-day date with Wolves that could decide who finishes 15th and who goes down.

With ten matchdays left, the rankings insist the title race, the top-five scramble and the relegation fight are all still liquid. In the most competitive Premier League season of the modern era, destiny—whatever the cliché merchants claim—remains stubbornly unwritten.