Champions League last 16: tie-by-tie analysis and predictions | Jonathan Wilson

Arsenal and Liverpool will head into the first legs believing the quarter-finals are within reach, while Manchester City and Newcastle must negotiate hazardous assignments against familiar European heavyweights.

Arsenal’s reward for topping the league phase with maximum points and the competition’s best goal difference is a last-16 meeting with Bayer Leverkusen, currently sixth in the Bundesliga. The clubs have met only once before, in the 2002 second group stage, when Arsenal drew 1-1 in Germany before cruising 4-1 at Highbury. Mikel Arteta’s side, having scored the most goals and conceded the fewest, will also face the winner of Bodø/Glimt v Sporting in the quarter-finals should they progress, a draw that strengthens the feeling that the Gunners have already gained tangible benefit from finishing first. Leverkusen’s sole eye-catching result so far was a victory over Manchester City at the Etihad, but they needed a late equaliser to draw at home with Newcastle and have won only three of their eight European fixtures this term.

Liverpool’s recent history with Galatasaray is patchy—one win in five meetings and a 3-2 defeat in Istanbul in September—but four of those encounters came more than two decades ago. Jürgen Klopp’s side, sturdier now than during their autumn wobble, face a Turkish outfit who dazzled for 45 minutes against Juventus yet wobbled in the return, losing discipline even against ten men. Victor Osimhen’s physicality could trouble a Liverpool defence still searching for its best pairing, yet the Reds’ greater composure over two legs may prove decisive.

Manchester City and Real Madrid will meet in the knockout phase for the fifth consecutive season, extending a rivalry that did not exist in competitive terms before 2012. City edged December’s league-phase meeting 2-1 at the Bernabéu after withstanding an early surge and arrive in better shape, with seven wins in eight matches. Madrid, who dismissed Xabi Alonso earlier this campaign, remain a collection of stellar individuals yet to gel under new management. Despite City’s recent ascendancy, Madrid have progressed from three of the previous four ties, ensuring Pep Guardiola’s side cannot assume passage to the last eight.

Newcastle’s last-16 assignment against Barcelona evokes memories of Faustino Asprilla’s famous 1997 hat-trick, though the Magpies have lost all four meetings since. The most recent, a 2-1 defeat at St James’ Park in September, offered encouragement: Eddie Howe’s side matched Barça physically and created chances via set pieces and runs behind the visitors’ high line. Hansi Flick’s team top La Liga but remain vulnerable when their press misfires, a weakness exposed in last season’s semi-final. Exploiting that flaw through pace and dead-ball situations gives Newcastle a credible, if narrow, route to the quarters.

Chelsea’s path looks treacherous. Enzo Maresca’s tactical master-plan in the Club World Cup final—releasing Cole Palmer beyond Nuno Mendes—feels a distant memory as fatigue appears to have set in after the club’s US tour. Paris Saint-Germain, indifferent for much of the campaign, edged Monaco 5-4 on aggregate in the playoff round and were similarly underwhelming at this juncture last season before finding their stride.

Bayern Munich shape as the biggest threat to English hopes. Harry Kane has 43 goals in all competitions, dropping deep to allow Michael Olise, Serge Gnabry and Luis Díaz to sprint beyond. The Bavarians have lost only once domestically and average more than 3.5 goals per game, though Arsenal outclassed them 3-1 at the Emirates in the league phase. They now face an Atalanta side seventh in Serie A and diminished from their 2024 Europa League-winning vintage.

Tottenham’s focus is domestic survival ahead of their tie with Atlético Madrid, themselves fourth in La Liga and beaten by both Liverpool and Arsenal in the autumn. Memories of the 1963 Cup Winners’ Cup final, when Spurs routed Atlético 5-1 in Rotterdam, offer romantic context but little practical help as Igor Tudor assesses his squad.

Finally, Bodø/Glimt’s remarkable winter surge—they defeated Manchester City and Atlético after Christmas before eliminating Inter—has earned a last-16 clash with Sporting, the competition’s least-fancied remaining side. The Norwegian champions’ artificial pitch north of the Arctic Circle and new-found tactical flexibility make them dangerous, yet Sporting will still expect to progress.