Champions League draw winners and losers: Arsenal get golden path, Man City and Real Madrid face off again

The road to the final in Budapest took shape on Friday morning when the last-16 bracket was revealed, and the reaction across Europe was swift: Arsenal could hardly have asked for a smoother route, while Manchester City and Real Madrid were paired together for a fifth consecutive season, ensuring one heavyweight will be gone before the quarterfinals.

Premier League leaders Arsenal were the immediate headline. Mikel Arteta’s side will meet Bayer Leverkusen, currently sixth in the Bundesliga and rated 22nd by Club ELO, before facing the winner of Bodo/Glimt and Sporting CP, ranked 41st and 13th respectively. The numbers underline the fortune of the draw: the opposite half of the bracket contains clubs that have lifted 31 European Cups between them; Arsenal’s side counts five, all won by Barcelona, who cannot cross paths with the Gunners before a potential semifinal. Six of the eight highest-rated teams still in the competition sit on the other side of the draw, meaning Arteta’s squad should reach the last four without confronting a fellow contender.

Contrast that with the task awaiting City and Madrid. Pep Guardiola and Carlo Ancelotti will renew acquaintances in the competition that has defined their recent rivalry, but the winner will almost certainly meet Bayern Munich in the quarterfinals and then face a semifinal lineup that could include Liverpool, Paris Saint-Germain, Chelsea or Galatasaray. The congestion is daunting: should City eliminate Madrid, a potential spring schedule reads Newcastle (FA Cup), Madrid away, West Ham, Madrid at home, Arsenal (EFL Cup final), Chelsea away, Bayern at home, Arsenal at home, Bayern away. Guardiola called the repeated meetings with Madrid “a chance to learn,” yet the physical and mental toll is unmistakable.

Chelsea’s tie against PSG offers a rematch of the Club World Cup final, when Enzo Maresca’s side out-pressed the French champions in East Rutherford. Liam Rosenior, now in charge, must replicate that blueprint against a Luis Enrique squad eager for revenge. Even if Chelsea advance, they remain on the stacked side of the draw, where the path to the final is crowded with heavyweights.

Bodo/Glimt, the story of the tournament, will meet Sporting CP for a place in the quarterfinals. The Norwegian champions have already beaten Atletico Madrid, Inter and Manchester City, and while Opta gives them a 36% chance of progressing, their high shot-concession rate (19.9 per game) may not be fully exploited by a Sporting attack missing the star power of recent years.

Tottenham, meanwhile, landed in the losers’ column through circumstance rather than opponent. Drawn against Atletico Madrid, Ange Postecoglou’s injury-hit squad must balance survival in the Premier League—four points above the drop zone—with European ambition. A tie against Galatasaray would have been harsher, but Atletico still represent a hurdle that complicates Spurs’ relegation fight.

The bracket, then, has delivered clarity: Arsenal have the luxury of time to build momentum, while the giants on the other side must trade punches from the first knockout round onward. For neutrals, the promise of another City-Madrid classic is irresistible; for the clubs involved, the draw is a reminder that in the Champions League, timing and fortune can matter as much as talent.