Monaco vs. PSG: Preview, Predictions and Lineups

Stade Louis II will stage the first act of a high-stakes, all-French Champions League playoff on Tuesday night as Monaco welcome holders Paris Saint-Germain with a coveted place in the round of 16 on the line. For the second consecutive season, PSG must negotiate a two-legged duel against domestic opposition to keep their European dream alive, but Sébastien Pocognoli’s injury-hit principality side believe the timing is ripe for an upset.

Monaco’s confidence is rooted in recent history. In November they edged PSG 1-0 at the same venue through Takumi Minamino’s second-half strike, and they will point to the capital club’s 3-1 league defeat at Rennes on Friday—PSG’s third league loss of the campaign—as evidence that vulnerabilities exist. Yet Luis Enrique’s men remain the benchmark in France; after topping last season’s knockout path with a 10-0 aggregate humbling of Brest, they will fancy their chances of another commanding passage.

The build-up, however, has been clouded by fitness concerns. Monaco could be without midfielders Maghnes Akliouche and Lamine Camara, both of whom will face late tests. Akliouche, hurt against Nantes, trained on Monday, while Camara’s ankle issue makes him a bigger doubt. Ansu Fati (thigh) is also questionable, and the treatment room already houses Eric Dier, Lukas Hrádecký, Christian Mawissa, Pape Cabral and Minamino. To refresh the squad, Paul Pogba has been left out of the knockout list, with January arrivals Simon Adingra and Wout Faes stepping in.

Should Akliouche pass muster, Pocognoli is expected to line up in a 4-2-3-1: Kökn; Vanderson, Kehrer, Faes, Henrique; Zakaria, Teze; Akliouche, Golovin, Adingra; Balogun.

PSG, meanwhile, are still without Fabián Ruiz (knee), but Warren Zaïre-Emery’s increased workload alongside João Neves and Vitinha has added dynamism to the midfield triangle. Teenage January signing Dro Fernández is registered yet unlikely to start, while Senny Mayulu is unavailable. Ousmané Dembélé has shaken off a knock to start, and with Lucas Chevalier demoted, Matfey Safonov should continue in goal. Enrique’s likely 4-3-3: Safonov; Hakimi, Marquinhos, Pacho, Mendes; Vitinha, Neves, Zaïre-Emery; Doué, Dembélé, Kvaratskhelia.

History says two-legged ties between familiar foes are fraught with tension; PSG’s rout of Brest was an anomaly rather than the norm. Monaco’s patched-up lineup will need to replicate the defensive discipline and clinical edge they showed in November, while hoping PSG’s profligacy resurfaces. A positive result in the first leg is imperative for the hosts, yet the visitors’ superior squad depth and big-game savvy give them the edge. Expect a tight, nervy affair settled by a single moment of brilliance.

Prediction: Monaco 1-2 PSG

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