The house always wins: How the establishment finally came out on top in Thailand

Bangkok — From the executive boxes of the Etihad Stadium to a cramped cell in Bangkok, the arc of Thaksin Shinawatra’s political life has completed a stunning reversal. The billionaire former owner of Manchester City, once the most influential voice in Thai politics, now watches from behind bars as the establishment he spent decades battling reasserts its grip on the kingdom.

Thaksin, a former policeman turned telecom tycoon, upended Thailand’s political order after founding a populist movement that delivered him two election victories and the prime ministership. Parties linked to his brand of pro-poor, pro-business policies commanded unwavering loyalty across the rural north and northeast, turning out voters in numbers that traditional elites had never before confronted.

Yet the loyalty that propelled Thaksin to power also provoked a backlash from monarchists, generals and old-money families who saw his rise as a threat to the country’s hierarchical structure. Years of street protests, court rulings and ultimately a 2006 military coup forced him into exile, but his political DNA survived through successive parties branded with the same red-shirted ethos.

Now, with Thaksin imprisoned in Thailand after a dramatic return from self-exile, the cycle appears closed. The same establishment forces that once hounded him have re-consolidated authority, leaving the Shinawatra dynasty—once deemed unassailable—diminished and its future uncertain.

The house, it seems, always wins.