Iran’s World Cup Spot in U.S. Jeopardized by Middle East Conflict; Iraq on Standby

GENEVA — Less than 100 days before kickoff, Iran’s participation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup has been thrown into limbo after a weekend of military strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and drew retaliatory Iranian missile fire toward U.S. allies, including Qatar and Saudi Arabia.

Iran is scheduled to play all three group-stage matches on American soil—two in Inglewood, California, and one in Seattle between June 15-26—and had planned a pre-tournament training camp at Tucson’s Kino Sports Complex. Those arrangements now hinge on a rapidly deteriorating geopolitical landscape triggered by coordinated U.S.–Israeli attacks that began Saturday.

“What is certain is that after this attack, we cannot be expected to look forward to the World Cup with hope,” Mehdi Taj, Iran’s federation chief and Asian Football Confederation vice-president, told reporters Monday.

FIFA, which has remained publicly silent since secretary general Mattias Grafström pledged Saturday to “monitor developments around all issues around the world,” faces the prospect of finding a late replacement. Tournament regulations give president Gianni Infantino sweeping authority under Article 6.7 to “decide on the matter at its sole discretion and take whatever action is deemed necessary,” including drafting “another association” to fill a vacancy.

Iraq, the ninth-best Asian side after last November’s qualifying playoffs, stands first in line. The Lions of Mesopotamia defeated the United Arab Emirates 3-2 on aggregate to reach an intercontinental playoff against Bolivia or Suriname on March 31 in Mexico, but could be elevated directly to the 48-team field if Iran withdraws or is excluded.

A pull-out would cost the Iranian federation at least $10.5 million in lost FIFA payments—$9 million in group-stage prize money and a $1.5 million preparation grant—plus disciplinary fines starting at 250,000 Swiss francs ($321,000) and potential exclusion from the 2030 qualifying cycle.

Visa complications have already shadowed the Iranian delegation; Taj and several officials were denied U.S. entry for the Dec. 5 draw in Washington, D.C. While the Trump administration has pledged event-specific waivers to athletes, residents of Iran remain subject to broader travel bans, and it remains unclear whether Washington could ultimately block the team’s arrival.

White House World Cup coordinator Andrew Giuliani appeared to shrug off the uncertainty in a social-media post Saturday: “We’ll deal with soccer games tomorrow—tonight, we celebrate their opportunity for freedom.”

Iran, ranked No. 20 globally, qualified comfortably last March and landed a favorable draw: opening against New Zealand, facing Belgium, and closing group play with Egypt. A large U.S.-based diaspora had been expected to back Team Melli, whose supporters famously used the 2022 tournament in Qatar to voice political protests.

Should Iraq receive a last-minute invitation, it would echo Denmark’s shock entry to the 1992 European Championship after Yugoslavia’s expulsion due to UN sanctions—a precedent Infantino could invoke under the loosely worded FIFA statutes.

For now, Tucson’s training-site staff and local organizers can only wait as soccer’s governing body weighs whether the Middle East’s most successful World Cup regular will take the field on American soil—or watch from afar as another nation claims its berth.