Champions League Power Rankings: Arsenal still the favorites to win the tournament as round of 16 looms large

With the Champions League bracket locked in and the first legs of the Round of 16 set to kick off on 10 March across Europe, the race to the 2025-26 final in Budapest on 30 May has crystallised. Arsenal, unbeaten in all eight league-phase fixtures and sitting atop the Premier League, remain the consensus pick to lift the trophy for the first time in the club’s history. Mikel Arteta’s side were handed a navigable path: Bayer Leverkusen await in the last 16, with the winner of Bodo/Glimt v. Sporting CP looming in the quarter-finals. Barring an upset, the Londoners can already be pencilled in as probable semi-finalists.

Bayern Munich sit just behind the Gunners in the pecking order. The Bavarians have opened an 11-point cushion over Borussia Dortmund in the Bundesliga after a dramatic 3-2 Der Klassiker win and can now devote their full attention to Europe. Vincent Kompany’s team will begin their knockout campaign against Atalanta, the side that eliminated Dortmund in the play-offs. Victory would tee up a titanic quarter-final with either Real Madrid or Manchester City, the competition’s two modern heavyweights who have been paired together yet again.

Barcelona, currently leading LaLiga under Hansi Flick, must first negotiate a reunion with Newcastle—repeat opponents from the opening week of the league phase—before a potential all-Spanish clash with Atlético Madrid in the quarters. Paris Saint-Germain, still adjusting after last season’s historic Treble, top Ligue 1 but look less imperious than the side that routed Inter 5-0 in the 2025 final. Luis Enrique’s men face a tricky Chelsea team eager to avenge their Club World Cup defeat to the Parisians last summer.

Chelsea’s upward trajectory under Liam Rosenior makes their tie with PSG one of the marquee match-ups of the round. Should the Blues progress, a quarter-final with Liverpool is on the cards, followed by a possible semi against the Real Madrid-Manchester City victor. City themselves arrive with questions swirling around Pep Guardiola’s future, yet the squad depth that has carried them to previous honours keeps them firmly in contention.

Liverpool, Premier League holders, have endured a bumpier campaign but still possess the firepower to trouble anyone. Their Round of 16 assignment against surprise package Bodo/Glimt looks straightforward, although a quarter-final with Barcelona or Newcastle will demand a swift uptick in form. Atlético Madrid, beneficiaries of a kind draw, should expect to dispatch Tottenham before a winnable quarter-final against either Barcelona or Newcastle.

On the other side of the bracket, Atalanta’s reward for dumping out Dortmund is a daunting duel with Bayern, while Sporting CP—fresh from eliminating Juventus—must now contend with Liverpool. Porto’s domestic pursuers, Sporting, remain four points behind the leaders but will fancy their chances against Norwegian champions Bodo/Glimt if they can navigate the Portuguese power struggle.

For Tottenham, the task is stark: a last-16 date with Atlético Madrid looks lopsided on paper, and the Londoners’ priority may soon shift to preserving their Premier League status. Leverkusen, meanwhile, must upset Arsenal to avoid a similar early exit, a scenario the rankings suggest is unlikely.

As the knockout stage dawns, the narrative is clear: Arsenal’s blend of defensive steel and attacking flair makes them the team to beat, but Bayern, Real Madrid, Barcelona and the rest are lying in wait, ready to turn the road to Budapest into a minefield of drama.