Is facing a Champions League play-off really that bad?

When the final whistle blew on January’s league-phase finale, Paris St-Germain, Inter Milan, Real Madrid, Juventus, Borussia Dortmund and Benfica discovered they had traded a winter break for a February shoot-out. All six former champions finished between 9th and 24th in the 36-team table, forcing them into a two-legged knockout play-off that will trim the field from 24 to 16. The question now echoing across Europe is whether the so-called detour is actually a death trap or a disguised advantage.

History, and last season’s remarkable run by PSG, argues it can be the latter. Twelve months ago Luis Enrique’s side were 15th after the league phase and 2-0 down at home to Manchester City on matchday seven before a dramatic 4-2 recovery propelled them into the play-offs. They responded by obliterating Brest 10-0 on aggregate, edging Liverpool on penalties in the last 16, ousting Aston Villa and Arsenal in the quarters and semis, then routing Inter 5-0 in the final. Far from derailing their campaign, the extra fixtures became a launchpad.

“We knew a play-off was a possibility,” Luis Enrique said after learning this season’s draw paired PSG with Monaco. “We will have to take the long route, but I don’t think anyone else can be considered favourites more than us.”

Opta’s modelling agrees: the reigning champions are rated more likely to lift the trophy than three of the sides that secured direct passage to the last 16, including Tottenham and Sporting. The analytics firm gives Newcastle and Inter the same 3 per cent probability as Spurs, while perfect-phase winners Arsenal top the charts at 30 per cent.

Yet the English quintet that finished inside the top eight—Arsenal, Liverpool, Tottenham, Chelsea and Manchester City—have greeted the bye with visible relief. “We’re really pleased to not play one knockout stage,” said Pep Guardiola, whose City team lost to Real Madrid at this juncture last year. “Hopefully we can arrive in March at our best.”

Arne Slot, whose Liverpool side topped the league in 2024-25 yet fell to PSG in the last 16, echoed the sentiment: “You want to finish top eight because that helps you skip a round.” Mikel Arteta, fresh from guiding Arsenal to eight wins from eight, called the perfect return “so difficult to do” and welcomed the chance to “focus on other competitions” during the play-off window.

For Newcastle, the only Premier League club still in jeopardy, the equation is simpler: beat Qarabag, the Azerbaijani side thumped 6-0 by Liverpool in January, and they will reach the Champions League knockout phase for the first time in the club’s history. Opta rates Eddie Howe’s team an 88.5 per cent favourite to advance. “We didn’t set out to qualify via a play-off,” Howe admitted, “but you take every eventuality that falls your way.” Defender Dan Burn insisted the squad are “looking forward” to making history.

Elsewhere, the draw has served up instant grudge matches. Benfica’s goalkeeper Anatoliy Trubin scored in the eighth minute of stoppage time against Real Madrid in January to flip a 2-1 deficit into a 4-2 triumph; the sides renew hostilities 48 hours apart on 17-18 and 24-25 February, with the winners earning a last-16 date with Sporting or Manchester City.

The wider data set offers encouragement to the play-off participants. Seven of last season’s top eight in the league phase reached the quarter-finals, but so did PSG from 15th and Real Betis from 15th in the Conference League, a competition Chelsea ultimately won from fourth place in their section. Tottenham, fourth in the league phase, went on to beat third-placed Manchester United in the Europa League final.

First legs take place on 17-18 February, with returns a week later. The eight victors will join Arsenal, Bayern Munich, Liverpool, Tottenham, Sporting, Manchester City, Barcelona and Chelsea in the last-16 draw, proving that the so-called consolation round can, in the right hands, become a springboard to continental glory.