Champions League play-offs – Numbers to know: Newcastle’s sojourn and Yildiz the creator

The Champions League’s inaugural 36-team league phase ended in a blur of simultaneous drama, but the arithmetic is now mercilessly simple: eight clubs are already in the last 16, 16 more enter a knockout play-off, and only half of them will survive. From seasoned kings to first-time travellers, the ties are laden with storylines that can be distilled into the sharpest of numbers.

Juventus v Galatasaray – the creator meets the finisher Kenan Yildiz, 19, is the second-youngest player to reach double figures for both chances created (12) and completed dribbles (16) in this season’s competition, trailing only Barcelona’s Lamine Yamal. The Regensburg-born forward, who left Bayern Munich’s academy for Turin on a free in 2022, leads all Italian-club players with three Champions League assists and has eight Serie A goals—only Inter’s Lautaro Martínez has more. Juve quickly locked him down until 2030, and he now returns to German-speaking territory to face Galatasaray, whose own hot streak is embodied by Victor Osimhen: six goals in six European outings, the best return by a Gala player since Burak Yılmaz’s eight in 2012-13. Gala’s RAMS Park has never seen an Italian winner in eight previous Champions League visits (W5 D3), and they have lost only one of six all-time meetings with Juve.

Atalanta v Borussia Dortmund – creativity crisis in Bergamo Charles De Ketelaere has had a direct hand in 13 goals in 17 Champions League appearances for Atalanta (six goals, seven assists), one shy of Mario Pasalic’s club record. The Belgian’s ability to receive under duress—80% of his touches this campaign arriving with high-intensity pressure—would have been critical against Dortmund’s press, but a partial tear of his right-knee meniscus sidelines him until mid-March. With Gianluca Scamacca also injured and Ademola Lookman departed, La Dea must replace 76% of their attacking production. Dortmund, meanwhile, can target a defence that has shipped five goals from unforced errors, the competition’s worst such record, and call upon Serhou Guirassy, whose 29% conversion rate since October 2020 (18 goals from 62 shots) is the best of any player with 50+ attempts.

Monaco v Paris Saint-Germain – the finishing problem Monaco have kept three consecutive home clean sheets in the Champions League, going 315 minutes without conceding at Stade Louis-II since Erling Haaland struck in October. Yet their attack has scored only eight goals from 14.5 expected goals, the largest negative differential (-6.5) in the field. Maghnes Akliouche embodies the struggle: 23 years old, 1,614 minutes played, four Ligue 1 goals—and zero from 25 shots worth 3.0 xG, both competition highs for a scoreless player. Folarin Balogun, three UCL goals, has netted in two of his last four appearances against PSG, who enter as reigning champions and heavy favourites despite their play-off detour.

Benfica v Real Madrid – transition titans No sides hit more goals from direct attacks this season than Benfica and Real Madrid (four each). Madrid lead the tournament with 29 such moves (3.6 per game) and convert 31% of their high turnovers into shots, the best ratio among all teams. The Mbappé-Vinícius partnership has already produced 19 chances for one another. Yet Madrid have lost six of their last 11 European matches and conceded 13 shots from errors—only Bodo/Glimt have been more generous. José Mourinho’s Benfica, who beat Madrid 4-2 in the league phase with a 98th-minute goalkeeper winner, have won three of four historic knockout ties against the Spanish giants and will again look to cede possession (they had just 33% in that January upset) and strike in chaos.

Newcastle United v Qarabag – the marathon men Newcastle’s 2,529-mile flight to Baku is the longest an English club has ever travelled for a Champions League away fixture, and it lands amid a January 28–February 21 span featuring eight matches, seven away from St James’ Park. The Magpies are nonetheless 89% favourites to progress, per Opta modelling. Anthony Gordon and Harvey Barnes have contributed to 13 of their 17 European goals—Gordon’s six strikes trail only Mbappé, Kane and Haaland—while Qarabag have conceded 21 goals in the league phase, second-worst in the field. Colombian striker Camilo Duran has four of the Azerbaijani side’s eight goals, but his team have shipped two or more in each of their last six continental outings. Both clubs have shown a propensity to drop points from winning positions—19 for Newcastle in the Premier League, eight for Qarabag in Europe—so a lead may prove fragile.

The numbers set the stage; 180 minutes per tie will decide who keeps the dream alive.