Guardiola likens Premier League set-piece surge to NBA’s three-point revolution

Manchester, England – Pep Guardiola has welcomed Manchester City’s status as the Premier League side least dependent on set-piece goals this season, yet warned that the dead-ball boom is reshaping English football in the same way the three-point shot transformed the NBA.

City have scored only nine of their 57 league goals from set plays – a division-low 15.8 % – but Guardiola insists the trend is impossible to ignore. Speaking ahead of Wednesday’s meeting with Nottingham Forest, the Catalan traced the tactical arms race back to his Barcelona debut in 2008 and admitted he now devotes far more energy to corners and free-kicks than he once did.

“I pay more attention to set pieces than when I started my career in Barcelona – much more,” Guardiola said. The 55-year-old delegates the detailed work to specialist coach James French, but monitors the evolution closely. “When the opponents create problems for you, you have to find a solution. Football is about that. It’s all evolution. Set pieces are the same.”

Arsenal have highlighted the shift more starkly than anyone. Mikel Arteta’s side have plundered 24 of their 58 league goals from set plays – a league-high 41.3 % – and Guardiola believes their success is forcing the rest of the division to adapt. He likened the phenomenon to the Golden State Warriors’ influence on the NBA, where Stephen Curry’s long-range mastery turned the three-pointer from niche to necessity.

“Four years ago in the NBA the three-shot point was not involved as much, but the Warriors with Stephen Curry started to make three points more and everyone adapted,” Guardiola said. “You can sit and complain, but you have to adapt – especially in the way it is whistled and conducted in the Premier League.”

His comments follow Liverpool manager Arne Slot’s lament that the modern English game is “not as joyful” because of the growing emphasis on dead-ball situations. Guardiola offered a wry historical nod – “When I was a young boy in Spain, we said the people in England celebrate corners and free-kicks like a goal – so nothing has changed” – yet conceded he “understands completely” Slot’s frustration.

Guardiola refused to elaborate on the grappling and blocking that now characterise many set-piece routines – “what happens inside the box remains absolutely to me” – but confirmed City are working overtime to nullify the threat as they chase a top-four finish that the manager values above even the title itself.

City can tighten their grip on Champions League qualification with victory over Forest at the Etihad, where Erling Haaland and teenage midfielder Nico O’Reilly face late fitness tests after missing Saturday’s 1-0 win at Leeds. Guardiola, whose side trail leaders Arsenal by a single point, believes securing Europe’s elite competition for a 16th consecutive year would eclipse any silverware.

“Last season there was a lot of pressure on my shoulders – the Fulham game, the last one, oh God, it was mentally the most difficult one,” he recalled, remembering the 2-0 win at Craven Cottage that clinched third place. “City is the only team in England in the last 12 years to do that. It is more important than winning the Premier League.”

With Arsenal travelling to Brighton on the same evening, Wednesday’s fixtures could define the shape of the top-four race. Guardiola’s side may not need a set-piece goal to get there – but they are preparing for a league where dead balls increasingly decide destinies.