Atletico Madrid vs. Barcelona: Preview, Predictions and Lineups

Madrid — Twelve months after Barcelona edged Atlético Madrid 5-4 on aggregate en route to lifting a record-extending 32nd Copa del Rey, the two heavyweights reconvene at the Metropolitano on Thursday for the first leg of another semifinal, and the narrative could hardly be more tantalising.

Hansi Flick’s visitors arrive in the Spanish capital as La Liga’s form side, unbeaten in 17 of their last 18 competitive fixtures and fresh from a ruthless 3-0 dismissal of Mallorca. Their path to the last four also included a statement win over giant-killers Albacete, signalling intent to retain the trophy they captured in dramatic fashion last season.

Atlético, by contrast, have spent the winter oscillating between brilliance and bewilderment. Diego Simeone’s men thrashed Real Betis 5-0 to book this tie, then inexplicably fell by the same opponents 1-0 at the weekend. Consistency has eluded them all campaign, yet few sides are more dangerous when the stakes are highest.

Injuries have shredded Simeone’s midfield. Pablo Barrios is ruled out with a muscle complaint, while United States international Johnny Cardoso remains touch-and-go. Veteran captain Koke is set to anchor the centre alongside recent winter recruit Rodrigo Mendoza, though Mexican teenager Obed Vargas is pushing for a shock start. Between the posts, Juan Musso — preferred cup goalkeeper — is expected to retain his berth ahead of Jan Oblak. The imposing central pairing of Dávid Hancko and José María Giménez will be tasked with subduing Barça’s prolific attack, while Julián Álvarez, mired in a two-month scoring drought, hopes the visit of the Blaugrana can jolt him back to life alongside new English wing weapon Ademola Lookman.

Predicted Atlético XI (4-4-2): Musso; Llorente, Giménez, Hancko, Ruggeri; Simeone, Koke, Mendoza, Baena; Álvarez, Lookman.

Barcelona’s infirmary remains busy. Pedri and Raphinha are long-term absentees, while on-loan forward Marcus Rashford picked up a knock against Mallorca and will sit out as a precaution. Ferran Torres, reconverted to a central role under Flick, is the natural choice to revert to the left flank, where he began his career. Frenkie de Jong, rested at the weekend, returns to orchestrate midfield alongside Dani Olmo and the energetic Fermín López, though López could be shifted wide if 17-year-old Marc Bernal or positional mate Marc Casado is handed a deeper remit. At the back, Pau Cubarsí and Eric García have become Flick’s first-choice centre-half pairing, with Jules Koundé and Alejandro Balde providing width from full-back.

Predicted Barcelona XI (4-3-3): García; Koundé, Cubarsí, García, Balde; López, De Jong, Olmo; Yamal, Lewandowski, Torres.

Recent editions of this fixture have produced pyrotechnics, and the tactical chess match promises fireworks once more. Atlético will look to exploit the spaces behind Barça’s high line with rapid counters through Álex Baena and Giuliano Simeone, while the visitors, buoyed by 15 goals in their last five outings, have repeatedly found crevices in Simeone’s rearguard.

A breathless, end-to-end encounter is forecast, but with everything still to play for ahead of the return leg at Camp Nou next month, a score draw feels the most likely outcome, leaving the tie exquisitely poised.