Are West Ham single-handedly keeping relegation battle alive?

For the first time since before Christmas, the gap between 17th and 18th in the Premier League has been trimmed to a nerve-jangling three points, and it is West Ham United’s sudden surge of form that has dragged the relegation fight back from the brink of irrelevance.

A 2-0 win at Burnley on Saturday, courtesy of another vibrant display from Crysencio Summerville and the now-customary contribution from Jarrod Bowen, means Nuno Espírito Santo’s side have taken 10 points from the last 12 available. The sequence has sliced their probability of relegation from well above 80 % to 75.77 %, according to Opta, and, more importantly, pulled them to within striking distance of Nottingham Forest in 17th.

With Wolves (eight points from 25 matches) given a 99.99 % chance of going down and Burnley on 99.4 %, the Hammers are the only club among the bottom five still realistically capable of clawing their way out of trouble. In doing so, they have single-handedly preserved the possibility of a final-day dogfight that recent seasons have largely lacked; only 10 campaigns since 1992-93 have failed to produce relegation drama on the last afternoon, five of those inside the past decade.

Nuno, who steered Forest to safety on the final day of 2023-24, was quick to temper euphoria. “We are still in the same situation,” he insisted. “We have to focus on ourselves.” Yet the numbers tell a different story. Callum Wilson’s stoppage-time winner at Tottenham on 17 January appears to have been the catalyst; West Ham have lost only once since and have added firepower in the shape of two deadline-day strikers. “They suddenly look like a team that can score goals,” noted Match of the Day pundit Danny Murphy. “Summerville is playing out of his skin and Bowen always chips in. That means you don’t have to be perfect at the back.”

The flip side is the margin for error remains wafer-thin. “You’d always rather have the points in the bag than be chasing,” Murphy warned. “One slip and the picture changes again.”

Immediately above them, Nottingham Forest’s cushion is already under scrutiny. Sean Dyche’s squad, bolstered by around £200 million of investment over the past year, are simultaneously fighting on Europa League fronts and were beaten at home by Leeds on Friday. Opta still rate their relegation risk at a relatively comfortable 15.3 %, but fatigue is emerging as an issue. “Too many times recently I’ve seen Forest look passive,” Murphy said. “He’s had to play the same eight or nine players every few days; that takes a toll, especially when you’re under pressure.”

Leeds, level with West Ham on 29 points, are buoyant after Friday’s victory at the City Ground and possess what Murphy calls “the Elland Road factor” in their run-in. Crystal Palace, who visit Brighton on Sunday, have been plunged into uncertainty by the sale of captain Marc Guehi and Oliver Glasner’s announcement he will leave in the summer. Tottenham, meanwhile, have taken four points from the last 21 available yet are still expected to pull clear on talent alone.

All of which leaves West Ham’s renaissance as the critical variable. If the Hammers maintain their new-found momentum, the relegation battle will extend deep into May; if they falter, the bottom three could be mathematically sealed with weeks to spare. For a league that has grown accustomed to damp-squib finishes, the sudden re-emergence of genuine jeopardy is a welcome subplot—and, for the moment, it is wearing claret and blue.