Why Villa are this season's big overperformers

Aston Villa’s current standing of third in the Premier League defies every statistical projection. Opta’s expected-points model places them 12th on 33.8 points, yet Unai Emery’s squad have 43 on the board and have occupied a Champions-League berth since 23 November. That gap between data and reality is the widest in the division, making Villa the campaign’s most conspicuous overperformers.

The story becomes more striking when set against their early-season turmoil. Four matches in, Villa had mustered two points and no goals – their worst start to a top-flight season since 1995. Since then, Emery has coaxed a run that keeps them nine points clear of fifth-placed Chelsea with a game in hand and within striking distance of Manchester City above them.

Emery, appointed in November 2023, has engineered the transformation while operating under financial constraints and, since last month, without midfield anchors Boubacar Kamara and Youri Tielemans, as well as captain John McGinn. Despite those absences, only the current top two have conceded fewer than Villa’s 28 goals. Their defensive xG of 38 illustrates a back line consistently papering over cracks, with Emiliano Martínez and a reshuffled defence repelling 10 goals’ worth of additional danger.

At the other end, pragmatism has replaced pizzazz. A league-high 13 goals from outside the box – albeit at a 10.4% conversion rate – masked earlier shot-quality issues, and that reservoir has since dried up: eight goals in eight games, with Ollie Watkins managing one in ten and Morgan Rogers similarly subdued. Tammy Abraham’s arrival from Roma has yielded two quick strikes, yet Villa’s collective xG ranks only 12th, underlining a collective struggle to manufacture clear chances.

Still, Villa have lost just three of their 16 league fixtures since Christmas, collecting more points in that span than Manchester United, Chelsea, Liverpool or Newcastle. Their recent wobble – 12 points from the last 24 – has stalled whispers of an audacious title tilt, but it has not dislodged them from the top-four positions they have held for four consecutive months.

Emery, who averages 1.8 points per Premier League game across his spells with Arsenal and Villa, sits tenth on the all-time managerial list for matches managed (179) and points accrued. Above him, only Mikel Arteta has not lifted a championship, a context that makes the Spaniard’s insistence that Villa remain “underdogs” sound less like modesty and more like a calculated shield against expectation.

The 52-year-old’s meticulous game-planning has elevated previously unheralded talents: £16m Morgan Rogers has graduated from Middlesbrough bench player to England international inside 18 months, while the squad’s collective work-rate has risen to meet the manager’s relentless standards. Players speak of double sessions and video marathons, a workload designed to out-prepare rather than out-spend rivals.

Villa’s schedule offers both jeopardy and opportunity. A trip to bottom club Wolves on Friday could extend their cushion over Chelsea to nine points before Sunday’s visit to leaders Arsenal, where a win would leave them two adrift of second-placed City. Thereafter, encounters with Chelsea, Manchester United, Liverpool and a final-day trip to the Etihad await – a slate that will test their capacity to keep outrunning the metrics.

Emery, ever the realist, frames the run-in as a continuation of process rather than a pivot. “Everything we built before makes sense,” he said after last weekend’s draw. “It is not easy now to change everything. No, it is completely wrong if we are feeling that.” Translation: Villa will keep defending deeper than the models advise, keep grinding out goals from set pieces and snapshots, and keep trusting a coach who has already delivered European nights Villa Park had not tasted since 1983.

Whether the numbers finally catch up or Villa continue to sprint clear will decide if this season ends with a 30-year trophy drought ended via Europa League glory, or merely a return to Europe’s premier club competition. Either outcome would represent a triumph of coaching alchemy over financial gravity – and confirmation that, in 2024-25, no club is bending reality quite like Aston Villa.