Which Team Will Sign Max Scherzer?

Max Scherzer’s cleats have barely cooled from the mound of Game 7, yet the 41-year-old’s next uniform remains the winter’s most compelling riddle. The right-hander walked off in October having protected a 3-1 lead against the Dodgers over 4⅓ innings of four-hit, one-run ball, a gritty outing that reminded baseball he can still deliver when the stakes soar. The final line on his lone Toronto campaign, however, was far less cinematic: a career-worst 5.19 ERA, a mid-season stay on the injured list stemming from the recurring nerve issue in his thumb, and a startling 2+ homers per nine innings that ranked fourth-highest among pitchers with 70 or more frames.

Those red flags obscure a profile that still carries value. Scherzer’s strikeout rate (23 percent) and walk rate (6 percent) both sit a notch above league average for starters, and his four-seam fastball averaged 93.6 mph—down from his peak yet a slight uptick from the 3.95-ERA cameo he authored for Texas in 2024. More importantly, he finished the year healthy, attacks hitters with a four-pitch mix, and brings a 3.78 postseason ERA across 33 October appearances, experience any contender could slot into the middle of a rotation.

Scherzer has declared he is not retiring, but he is willing to wait. In late January he told The Athletic he could sign “at any time” yet is prepared to extend the process into the regular season if it lands him with a club he views as a legitimate World Series threat. That stance narrows the field—and raises the stakes—for a handful of suitors.

Toronto, the team that took the gamble last year, could opt for familiarity. With Shane Bieber starting 2025 on the injured list, the Blue Jays boast a solid five in Dylan Cease, Kevin Gausman, rookie Trey Yesavage, José Berríos and Cody Ponce, with Eric Lauer in long relief. A reunion would create a six-man alignment, easing the workload on Yesavage and adding a battle-tested voice to a young staff.

Atlanta entered camp already uneasy about rotation depth and has since watched Spencer Schwellenbach and Hurston Waldrep go down. The Phillies will open without Zack Wheeler and are relying on Taijuan Walker and prized prospect Andrew Painter. Minnesota may lose Pablo López for the season, though their competitive status could deter a pitcher laser-focused on October. Texas has two prospects—Kumar Rocker and Jacob Latz—dueling for the fifth spot, but club finances might price them out of the future Hall of Famer. The Yankees, meanwhile, are awaiting returns from Carlos Rodón and Gerrit Cole while weighing the durability of projected back-end arms Ryan Weathers and Luis Gil, both of whom carry option flexibility and injury risk.

Every contender faces the same calculus: does the potential for October heroism outweigh a regular-season ceiling that has lowered with age and wear? Scherzer is betting that one franchise will answer yes—and that the call could come as late as the dog days of summer.