Weekend predictions: Arsenal or Man City to win Carabao final? Who takes Madrid derby?

Wembley and the Bernabéu share top billing this weekend as the Carabao Cup final and a pivotal Madrid derby promise to shape narratives from north London to the Spanish capital.

Carabao Cup final: Arsenal v Manchester City First meets second in English football’s first piece of silverware, and the psychological stakes dwarf the gleam of the trophy itself. Arsenal, unbeaten since January and armed with 25 clean sheets in 49 matches, have conceded next to nothing while Bukayo Saka, Eberechi Eze and Declan Rice offer match-winning thrust. Only Saka remains from the club’s last final triumph—the pandemic-hit 2020 FA Cup—so Mikel Arteta’s squad is desperate to shed its “nearly” label.

City, by contrast, arrive bruised: one win in five, back-to-back Champions League exits to Real Madrid, and Erling Haaland managing a lone goal in that span. Pep Guardiola’s 4-2-2-2 has looked ragged, and confidence is brittle. A victory would reignite belief for the run-in; defeat could hand Arsenal the upper hand ahead of next month’s league meeting and tilt the title race. Expect Arsenal’s suffocating structure to test City’s misfiring attack, with set-pieces looming large.

Pick: Arsenal 2-1 Manchester City

LaLiga: Real Madrid v Atlético Madrid Barcelona lead the table by four, but the derby could redraw the map. Atlético trail their neighbours by nine and need to play spoiler; a win would simultaneously boost their pride and Barça’s title odds. Diego Simeone’s side are buoyant after a 3-2 dismantling of in-form Real Sociedad, with Alexander Sørloth red-hot and Antoine Griezmann still capable of the spectacular.

Carlo Ancelotti’s interim replacement, Álvaro Arbeloa, has steadied the ship via a pragmatic 4-4-2, coaxing improved displays from Thiago Pitarch and Aurélien Tchouaméni. Kylian Mbappé, fresh off a 20-minute cameo against City, is slated to start and offers the individual brilliance Madrid lacked in September’s 5-2 humiliation at the Metropolitano. Expect a cagey, high-stakes chess match rather than a goalfest.

Pick: Real Madrid 1-1 Atlético Madrid

Relegation six-pointer: Tottenham v Nottingham Forest Tottenham have won twice at home all league season and sit just one point above 17th-placed Forest. Both clubs have new managers searching for traction: Spurs’ Igor Tudor has lost four straight but snatched a late point at Liverpool, while Vitor Pereira’s visitors have taken two points from 18 and scored only five in six. Home advantage has been a curse for Tottenham, yet Forest’s away record (15 from 45) invites opportunity.

Pick: Tottenham 2-1 Nottingham Forest

Ligue 1: Lyon v Monaco Fourth hosts sixth with Champions League places on the line. Monaco ride five straight league wins and a full week’s rest; Folarin Balogun has six goals and an assist in six games. Lyon, winless in six and fatigued from Europa League duty, can ill afford another slip.

Pick: Lyon 1-2 Monaco

Eredivisie: Feyenoord v Ajax PSV’s title is all but sealed, so second-place Feyenoord—five points above Ajax—must hold serve in De Klassieker. Robin van Persie’s side flit between brilliant and absent, while Ajax, under third manager Oscar Garcia, arrive on a three-match derby winning streak but have won only three away all season.

Pick: Feyenoord 2-2 Ajax