Tottenham relegation odds: Spurs still outsiders to go down despite struggles

Tottenham Hotspur’s Premier League plight is deepening, yet the bookmakers still believe survival is the likeliest outcome for Thomas Frank’s injury-ravaged squad. Despite collecting only two victories from their last 16 league fixtures since October, Spurs are priced at 10/1 to be relegated—longer odds than any of the sides immediately above the drop zone.

Saturday’s 2-1 defeat at Manchester United, compounded by Cristian Romero’s fourth dismissal of the campaign, nudged Tottenham to within six points of 18th-placed West Ham. The Hammers, priced at 2/5, remain the favourites to drop, with Nottingham Forest (10/3) and Leeds United (17/2) also rated more likely to go down than Spurs.

Historical precedent offers Frank a sliver of comfort: no club amassing 44 points has ever been relegated from the Premier League, and Tottenham are currently tracking for 44 on a points-per-game average of 1.16. Yet that projection masks a stark collapse in form. More than half of Spurs’ 28-point haul was banked inside the opening nine matchdays; since then the side have averaged 0.75 points a game, a tempo that would leave them on 38 points—still historically enough for survival four times out of five.

The underlying numbers are less forgiving. Tottenham sit 17th for expected goals, superior only to the division’s bottom trio of Wolves, Sunderland and Burnley. They rank 13th for big chances created and for touches inside the opposition box, while their open-play shot count of 10.9 per game trails relegation rivals Crystal Palace, Forest and Leeds.

Injuries have shredded the squad. Dejan Kulusevski and James Maddison have yet to feature this season; Dominic Solanke has only just regained fitness, and the loss of Destiny Udogie at Old Trafford took the casualty list to 12 senior players. January recruit Conor Gallagher has added energy but cannot offset the absences alone.

Set-pieces have provided rare cheer—only Arsenal and Manchester United have scored more from dead-ball situations—but Romero and Micky van de Ven, both centre-backs, remain joint-second top league scorers for the club. Romero will now miss the next four domestic matches through suspension.

A respectable away record—four defeats in 13 on the road—has kept Tottenham afloat, yet home form is dire. Just two wins and two clean sheets in 12 fixtures at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium have turned matchdays into a chorus of dissent, with Newcastle and Arsenal still to visit this month.

The contrast with Spurs’ European fortunes is jarring. Since mid-December 2024, Tottenham have won 12 of 21 continental ties, compared with 11 league victories in 47 attempts. European progress was insufficient to save predecessor Ange Postecoglou last summer, and supporters are increasingly sceptical that Frank is the long-term solution.

Six points separate Tottenham from the relegation places with a dozen fixtures remaining. The cushion is real; the comfort is not.