Supercomputer Predicts Final 2025–26 Premier League Table After Arsenal’s Wolves Blunder

Molineux, Wednesday night: the clock ticked into the 96th minute and Arsenal’s bench already sensed three priceless points. Instead, a late Wolverhampton Wanderers equaliser ripped victory away, flung the door wide open in the title race, and sent Opta’s supercomputer scrambling for new calculations. The upshot? Mikel Arteta’s side remain favourites to lift the trophy in May, but their margin for error has evaporated.

The stoppage-time drama means Arsenal have dropped five points across a pivotal seven-day span, having also been held by Brentford in Gameweek 26. Manchester City, idle after their trip to Crystal Palace was postponed, now lurk four points behind with a match in hand. Should Pep Guardiola’s men win that extra fixture, the gap shrinks to a nerve-shredding two, setting up a sprint to the finish that neither fanbase could have predicted a month ago.

Opta’s model still projects Arsenal to finish top on roughly 80 points—historically the fourth-lowest total for a Premier League champion—yet their probability of sealing the deal dipped from 85.81% to 80.92%. City, forecast to end on 74, will view that six-point shortfall as anything but insurmountable with 12 fixtures remaining.

Behind the duopoly, Aston Villa’s fairytale is expected to fall short of genuine contention, though a projected third-place finish would represent their best top-flight return since 1992-93. The real intrigue lies beneath them. Thanks to England’s coefficient surge in 2025-26, the Premier League earns an extra Champions League berth, turning the race for fourth and fifth into a gladiatorial contest among Liverpool, Chelsea and Manchester United.

All three giants are slated to converge around the 62-point mark, separated by decimal-place margins. Liverpool’s 0.23-point edge over Chelsea is the slimmest of cushions; another slip like Mauricio Pochettino’s side suffered against Leeds could flip the order. Manchester United, rejuvenated under Michael Carrick, are tipped for sixth and Europa League football, but a late surge could yet squeeze them into Europe’s top tier.

Brentford’s stubborn rearguard against Arsenal underpins their push for continental qualification. The Bees are projected seventh, four points clear of Bournemouth, while Newcastle and Everton have been given a combined 1.07% chance of gate-crashing the top five. Sunderland have turned heads on their top-flight return, an 11th-place finish and 49-point haul banishing any relegation fears. Fulham sit a place and a point behind them.

Brighton and Crystal Palace are braced for regression—13th and 14th respectively—yet safety is assured. Leeds, likewise, are forecast to stay up with 44.78 points, fractionally above Tottenham’s projected 44.51, as new boss Igor Tudor attempts to repair early-season damage. Spurs’ 3.65% relegation risk is slim, but their slide from last season’s European spots is palpable.

At the foot of the table, the mathematics grow brutal. Nottingham Forest, already on their fourth manager, are predicted to scrape 40 points and survive by the slenderest of margins. West Ham United, despite a January revival, are given a 71.03% chance of the drop. Burnley and Wolves are certainties to go down in Opta’s eyes; the Clarets are forecast to muster 28 points, while Wolves’ 20.07 is the league’s worst haul—even after the morale-boosting draw against Arsenal.

With 12 matchdays left, the supercomputer’s verdict is clear: Arsenal still control their destiny, but every misplaced pass, every stoppage-second, could tilt the balance toward a blue half of Manchester that refuses to yield its crown without a final, ferocious fight.