Supercomputer Predicts Champions League Winner After Last 16 Draw

London—Friday’s draw for the UEFA Champions League round of 16 has barely settled, yet the Opta supercomputer has already crunched the numbers again and declared its new favourite to lift the trophy in May. Despite a marginal dip in their projected chance of success, Arsenal remain the algorithm’s pick to secure a maiden European crown, edging out a chasing pack that includes Bayern Munich, Liverpool and Manchester City.

The Gunners, drawn against Bayer Leverkusen and placed in the theoretically softer half of the bracket, saw their probability trimmed by 2.05 per cent, but no rival has managed to overhaul Mikel Arteta’s side at the top of the forecast. Bayern Munich stay second, although Vincent Kompany’s team must first navigate an awkward tie with giant-killers Atalanta—fresh from eliminating Borussia Dortmund—and then potentially face a minefield containing Real Madrid, Manchester City, Liverpool, Chelsea or Paris Saint-Germain.

Liverpool’s outlook brightened the moment the balls were pulled. Avoiding a last-16 showdown with Atlético Madrid, the five-time champions were paired instead with Galatasaray, the Turkish side that shocked Arne Slot’s men during the league phase. The supercomputer responded by nudging the Reds’ prospects upward, making them the third-most likely victors.

Manchester City, still seeking a second Champions League triumph, were handed a blockbuster meeting with 14-time winners Real Madrid. That daunting assignment has seen their statistical odds nudged slightly downward, leaving them fourth in the forecast.

Barcelona, placed in the easier bracket, will begin their knockout campaign against Newcastle United. The Catalan giants have leapfrogged Chelsea in the projections to sit fifth, while the Blues’ reward for topping their group is a daunting tie against reigning champions Paris Saint-Germain. Should Mauricio Pochettino’s men progress, a series of heavyweight encounters likely awaits.

Curiously, PSG have slipped below Newcastle in the supercomputer’s rankings despite the Magpies’ daunting task against Barça. Real Madrid, meanwhile, continue to languish further down the list, rated below PSG and only fractionally ahead of Sporting CP and Atlético Madrid.

With the bracket now set and Europe’s elite preparing for February’s first legs, the data-driven verdict is clear: Arsenal still hold pole position, but the path to glory in 2024-25 promises drama at every turn.

Opta supercomputer top contenders (probability order): Arsenal, Bayern Munich, Liverpool, Manchester City, Barcelona, Chelsea, Newcastle United, Paris Saint-Germain, Real Madrid, Sporting CP, Atlético Madrid.