Ranking Champions League Quarterfinals by Upset Potential: Real Madrid, Liverpool Underdogs

The eight-team bracket for the UEFA Champions League quarterfinals is heavy on pedigree—four of the last six winners are still alive—but the bracket that will decide a May 31 final in Budapest is tilted toward a handful of favorites and a few hopefuls. Below, every tie is ranked from least likely to most likely to spring a surprise.

Sporting Lisbon vs. Arsenal, 3 p.m. Arsenal have stumbled in domestic cups, yet they remain the competition’s front-runners and hold the most favorable draw. Sporting, the season’s Cinderella story, are outmatched in every department. Expect the Gunners to cruise and book a second consecutive semifinal berth.

Real Madrid vs. Bayern Munich, 3 p.m. Real Madrid just dismantled Manchester City 5-1, but Bayern, one goal short of the Bundesliga single-season record, are organized in attack and defense. Vincent Kompany’s side is Arsenal’s chief challenger; Madrid’s star power is undeniable yet inconsistent. A competitive tie, yet Bayern are the safer pick.

Paris Saint-Germain vs. Liverpool, 3 p.m. Reigning champions PSG are peaking—an 8-2 aggregate rout of Chelsea and a weekend off—while Liverpool limp in with one win in five matches and a 4-0 FA Cup thumping by Manchester City. A repeat of last season’s round-of-16 shootout is unlikely; PSG are the side in form.

Barcelona vs. Atletico Madrid, 3 p.m. Barcelona sit seven points clear atop LaLiga, but Raphinha’s hamstring absence drops their win rate from 85.2% to 58.3%. Atleti, buoyed by an in-form Julian Alvarez, are best positioned to exploit Barça’s defensive lapses and pull the quarterfinal’s biggest upset.

Upset watch: Atletico Madrid over Barcelona. Upset potential: Real Madrid and Liverpool underdogs. Upset verdict: Arsenal and Bayern Munich favorites.