Qarabag vs. Newcastle: Preview, Predictions and Lineups

Baku’s Olympic Stadium will stage the first leg of an historic Champions League playoff on Wednesday night when surprise-package Qarabağ welcome Newcastle United, the first competitive meeting between the clubs and a tie that neither dared to bank on when the competition kicked off in September.

For Eddie Howe’s visitors, the equation is simple: win the two-legged tie and the Magpies reach the round of 16 for the first time since the competition rebrand. A 1-1 draw at holders Paris Saint-Germain in the final league-phase fixture showcased Newcastle’s big-stage credentials, yet 14 points ultimately left them ninth and forced into the playoff route. Away-form worries linger—only three victories on the road in all competitions this season—but sobering results for Chelsea (held here) and Liverpool (6-0 winners in November) underline that Qarabağ can punish any lapse.

The Azerbaijani champions booked their place in the knockouts with dramatic late momentum: back-to-back opening wins steadied nerves, and a penultimate-matchday defeat of Eintracht Frankfurt secured their berth. Gurban Gurbanov’s squad arrives injury-free, although defenders Marko Janković, Kevin Medina and Matheus Silva must tread carefully; another caution would trigger a suspension for next week’s return leg. No such threat hangs over attacking catalysts Camilo Durán and Leandro Andrade, whose combined seven goals have carried Qarabağ this far.

Howe, by contrast, juggles a lengthening casualty list. Captain Bruno Guimarães faces six weeks out with a thigh injury, placing the onus on Sandro Tonali—fresh from an authoritative display at Aston Villa—to dictate tempo. Jacob Ramsey and Joe Willock are in contention to partner the Italian, while Joelinton, Lewis Miley and Tino Livramento remain unavailable. Yoane Wissa and Sven Botman sat out Saturday’s FA Cup win and are rated doubtful, but Kieran Trippier and Nick Pope are expected to anchor a side likely to favour containment over cavalier adventure.

Tactical patience could define the night. Qarabağ’s 4-2-3-1 is built on rapid transitions from wide areas, with Andrade and winger Abdellah Zoubir targeting spaces behind advanced full-backs. Newcastle’s predicted 4-3-3 will ask wingers Anthony Gordon and Harvey Barnes to track deep, while Tonali shields a back line that may feature inexperienced centre-back Malick Thiaw if Botman is withheld.

A scoreless or low-scoring affair would suit Howe, mindful that St. James’ Park has become a fortress; concede in Baku and the tie tilts sharply. Yet Qarabağ, roared on by a raucous home crowd, sense another English scalp. The visitors have never progressed beyond the group stage in the Champions League era; the hosts have never been this close to the last 16. Something has to give on the banks of the Caspian.

Predicted lineups Qarabağ (4-2-3-1): Kochalski; Silva, Mustafazade, Medina, Jafarguliyev; Bicalho, Janković; Andrade, Montiel, Zoubir; Durán. Newcastle (4-3-3): Pope; Trippier, Thiaw, Botman, Hall; Tonali, Willock, Ramsey; Elanga, Gordon, Barnes.

Officials have yet to be confirmed; viewers in the United States can follow the action live on Paramount+, TUDN USA, UniMás and associated streaming platforms. Kickoff is set for 20:00 local time (11:00 EST).