Nottingham Forest v Wolves: Key stats and talking points

Nottingham Forest step into Wednesday’s City Ground clash with Wolverhampton Wanderers knowing that every point is now gold in their bid to stay above the Premier League drop zone. Sean Dyche’s side sit 17th, only two points clear of 18th-placed West Ham after the Hammers were denied victory by a last-gasp Manchester United equaliser on Tuesday night. With survival margins tightening, Forest cannot afford a slip against a Wolves outfit anchored to the foot of the table.

The Reds’ lone bright spot from Friday’s 3-1 defeat at Leeds was debutant Lorenzo Lucca, the 6ft 7in Italian marking his first appearance in English football with a goal after just 32 minutes. His encouraging cameo at Elland Road has strengthened the case for a first start, especially with top-scorer Chris Wood sidelined through injury. Wood’s absence leaves midfielder Morgan Gibbs-White, on six league goals, as the club’s leading marksman this season; another strike against his former employers would lift him joint-second on Forest’s all-time Premier League scorers list, behind only Wood.

Goals have been painfully scarce for both clubs. Forest and Wolves rank among the division’s three lowest-scoring sides, a blunt edge reflected in their conversion rates: Wolves propping up the league at 6.8% from 236 attempts, with Forest next-worst on 8.4% from 298. The visitors’ woes are compounded by a wretched away record—14 Premier League games without a win, losing 11 and drawing three, including all 12 on the road this season. It is their longest winless top-flight travels since 2003-04, when they failed to win any of 19 away fixtures and finished bottom.

Rob Edwards’ team have collected just eight points from 25 matches, the fewest in competition history at this stage. Avoiding the ignominy of Derby County’s 11-point 2007-08 campaign has become a mini-quest, yet even that modest target looks steep after a run of five winless league outings since their solitary victory, a 2-1 success over West Ham on 3 January. Defensively, Wolves have kept only two clean sheets all season, while at the other end Tolu Arokodare’s late consolation against Chelsea means five players remain tied as the club’s top league scorers on two goals apiece.

Forest, meanwhile, have not beaten Wolves in any of their last nine home meetings (five draws, four defeats), but they do arrive unbeaten in their last three at the City Ground across all competitions, punctuated by a 4-0 Europa League rout of Ferencvaros. Against a side bereft of confidence and goals, Dyche will see an opportunity to open vital breathing space above the relegation line and edge closer to the safety mark before the season’s final stretch.