MLB Player Props & Best Bets for Today, April 5

Easter Sunday offers a slate of value-heavy matchups, and the analytics point to three hitters who should be circled on every betting card: Yordan Alvarez, Cody Bellinger, and Kyle Schwarber.

Yordan Alvarez headlines the card after cashing yesterday and drawing four walks in his only official at-bat while still plating a run. Alvarez sits second in wRC+ and paces the league with a .604 xwOOBA. Split left-handed pitching data show a .571 ISO in 18 plate appearances, and today he faces Jacob Lopez, who ranked in the bottom fifth percentile last season in chase, whiff, strikeout, and walk rates. Lopez walked five batters in four innings in his 2025 debut, setting the table for Houston’s offense. Alvarez’s RBI prop sits at −120, a bargain compared with the −145 juice attached to his three-hit prop.

Coors Field’s thin air amplifies the upside, and Alvarez’s .288 wRC+ makes the plus-odds an easy accept.

Cody Bellinger counters Tomoyuki Sugano, who pitches to contact and allowed 1.93 HR/9 last season. Sugano posted an ERA half of his xERA and xFIP metrics and surrendered a home run in his first start while failing to complete five innings. Bellinger has crossed the plate in six of eight games this season, largely because he is walking at a 17% clip and posting a .361 xwOBA.

Kyle Schwarber rounds out the trio, facing RHP Chris Paddack, who relies almost exclusively on a fastball-changeup mix against left-handed bats. Paddack yielded eight earned runs and two home runs in four innings in his first start. Ben Rice and Giancarlo Stanton both rank in the top 15 in wRC+ versus right-handed pitching this season, with Rice’s .476 ISO fifth in the majors.