Liverpool’s Route to the 2025–26 Champions League Final

Anfield, once again, finds itself dreaming of Istanbul. After a domestic campaign that faltered almost from the first whistle, Liverpool have discovered that their only credible path to silverware—and to next season’s Champions League—runs straight through this season’s competition. The stakes, already stratospheric for a club that counts European glory as its lifeblood, have been amplified by the possibility that a seventh continental crown may be the sole ticket back to the tournament that defines them.

The Reds sealed an automatic place in the last 16 by finishing third in the revamped league phase, a sequence of continental performances that has stood in stark contrast to their erratic Premier League form. Monday’s draw in Nyon handed them a tie against Turkish giants Galatasaray, a pairing that steers them clear of Atlético Madrid but revives memories of a 1–0 defeat in Istanbul earlier this season, settled by a Victor Osimhen penalty. Liverpool will travel to the raucous Rams Park knowing an Anfield return offers a potential safety net, yet mindful that a repeat of the flat display produced in October could leave them scrambling to stay alive on enemy soil.

Should Arne Slot’s side negotiate the Turkish test, a heavyweight collision awaits in the quarter-finals. The bracket funnels Liverpool into the same half as reigning champions Paris Saint-Germain and domestic rivals Chelsea. PSG ended Liverpool’s European hopes at this juncture last term and, despite relinquishing some of their previous dominance, remain a proposition dripping with individual brilliance. Chelsea, beaten by the Reds in stoppage-time heartbreak at Stamford Bridge earlier in the campaign, appear the lesser evil thanks to ongoing league inconsistencies, yet still possess the pace and power to punish any defensive lapse.

The semi-final pathway offers no respite. Awaiting the survivors is the winner of a last-eight box-office slate featuring either Real Madrid or Manchester City against Bayern Munich or Atalanta. Liverpool supporters of a certain vintage still wince at the sight of Madrid’s white shirts, though this iteration—managed by former Reds full-back Álvar Arbeloa—has looked uncharacteristically vulnerable, including a group-stage loss at Anfield. City, fresh from a league double over Liverpool and timing their customary spring surge to perfection, represent the more immediate danger, while Bayern’s blend of Bundesliga authority and European pedigree makes them the consensus boogeyman. Only Atalanta, Europa League holders and the softest name on paper, offer a sliver of comparative comfort.

Reach the final, and the likelihood is a showdown with either Arsenal or Barcelona, the standout outfits from the opposite side of the draw. Both would enter a one-off final as favorites, armed with the firepower and tactical sophistication to exploit Liverpool’s occasional defensive brittleness. Newcastle United and Tottenham Hotspur remain theoretical opponents, as do Sporting CP, Bayer Leverkusen, and an Atlético Madrid side that could still muscle their way through. The romantic tale of Norwegian minnows Bodø/Glimt is expected to conclude well before the grand stage in June.

For Liverpool, the equation is brutally simple: win the Champions League or face a season without its music next autumn. The route is treacherous, the margins razor-thin, but on the continent the Reds have rediscovered the intensity and cohesion so sorely missing domestically. Five more victories—each harder than the last—stand between them and another parade through the city that has always believed European nights are its destiny.