Liverpool vs Manchester City: State of the rivalry, who needs the points more, and predictions

Anfield’s most modern grudge match returns on Sunday, yet when Liverpool welcome Manchester City the stakes feel recalibrated. Between them the clubs have claimed every Premier League crown since 2017—Liverpool twice, City six—but this year they enter the weekend a combined 11 points adrift of leaders Arsenal, who top the table with a six-point cushion over second-placed City and an 11-point buffer over sixth-placed Liverpool. The gap has transformed the fixture from a prospective title decider into a dual rescue mission: City clinging to hopes of a fifth straight championship, Liverpool scrambling simply to stay in next season’s Champions League.

Is the rivalry still special?

“Not in the way that it used to,” says The Athletic’s Sam Lee. “The passion in the stands will be the same and the game should be entertaining, but both teams have dropped in quality and the stakes are nowhere near the peak Guardiola/Klopp level.”

Colleague Andy Jones agrees: “It has shifted, much like Liverpool’s rivalry with Chelsea did once the clubs stopped fighting for the same prizes. The desire to beat City remains, yet when you’re not going toe-to-toe for the title every May, the dynamic changes.”

Who needs the points more?

Jones argues City, citing the razor-thin margin for error in a title chase. “Dropping points when you’re already six behind has greater consequences than slipping in a top-four/top-five fight,” he notes.

Lee concurs: “City are still tangibly in the race. Liverpool could qualify for the Champions League by finishing fifth, a target that allows more wiggle room.”

Key battles and absences

Erling Haaland, scoreless in three previous league visits to Anfield, heads for Merseyside needing better service. Creativity could come from summer target Rayan Cherki or in-form Florian Wirtz, whose budding partnership with Hugo Ekitike has pepped up Pep Guardiola’s attack. Liverpool, meanwhile, are relieved that November tormentor Jeremy Doku is injured, though they may still have to handle Antoine Semenyo.

Individual threats aside, both camps admit the occasion itself can fluster City. “This fixture has always been a banana skin,” Lee says. “Liverpool’s best Klopp-era sides plus the Anfield atmosphere made it a nightmare; the aura lingers.”

Weak links

Both defences wobble under sustained pressure. City have lost a league-high nine second halves and coughed up a 2-0 lead to Tottenham last outing; Liverpool’s thin bench has seen late goals conceded pile up. Slot’s side do arrive a week fresher, however, after City’s midweek Carabao Cup trip to Newcastle.

Managerial sub-plots

A poor second season has put Arne Slot under scrutiny at Liverpool, where failure to reach the Champions League—via league placing or tournament victory—would trigger serious boardroom review. Guardiola’s future is also gossip-fodder, yet Lee bucks consensus: “I’m one of the few journalists who believe Pep will still be at City next season.”

Predictions

Jones: “Liverpool 2-1. City’s long-standing Anfield demons and current second-half issues play into the hosts’ hands, though a high-scoring draw wouldn’t shock.”

Lee: “Probably a Liverpool win. Even when City are at their best that’s how it tends to go, and right now they can’t string together 90 solid minutes.”

Whatever the outcome, Sunday’s clash will not redefine the title race of old; instead it offers City one last sprint lane and Liverpool a lifeline to Europe’s elite.

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