Is Premier League title momentum beginning to swing Man City's way?

Manchester, England – The arithmetic is tightening at the summit of the Premier League and, with it, the psychological balance of power. A nine-point buffer that Arsenal held over Manchester City little more than a week ago has been shaved to four, courtesy of back-to-back City victories that felt less like isolated results and more like a statement of intent.

Sunday’s seismic 2-1 comeback at Anfield, sealed by Erling Haaland’s late penalty, was followed three days later by a surgical first-half dismantling of Fulham: three goals in 15 minutes, the contest over before the break. Pep Guardiola’s side have now scored 30 times before half-time this term—nine more than any rival—while registering a league-best 42 open-play goals, underlining a diversified attack no longer wholly reliant on Haaland’s shoulder.

The Norwegian’s recent workload—2,148 league minutes, the most of any City player—has coincided with a dry spell of just one open-play goal in eight outings. Yet he remains decisive, converting the clincher at Liverpool and adding the gloss against Fulham before being granted an early shower. Guardiola is expected to rest his striker, along with Bernardo Silva and teenage midfielder Nico O’Reilly, during the forthcoming FA Cup weekend, hoping to re-energise a squad whose early-season gears have finally meshed.

O’Reilly’s emergence has allowed Rodri to shed his solo-anchor duties, with Silva and the 19-year-old shuttling intelligently to plug last year’s transition gaps. Still, City have lost nine second halves in the league—only Burnley have fared worse—highlighting a lingering fragility once opponents adjust. Thus far, explosive starts have rendered that flaw academic.

January recruits Antoine Semenyo (five goals already) and Marc Guehi have slotted seamlessly, adding both thrust and stability. Their impact mirrors the squad-depth mantra Arsenal have trumpeted since summer, and addresses Guardiola’s mid-season demand for fresh impetus.

The Opta supercomputer still installs Arsenal as 86 per cent favourites for the crown, City at 12 per cent, but optics increasingly favour the champions. Mikel Arteta’s side have dropped nine points across seven matches since the turn of the year, succumbing to scoreboard pressure whenever City post an earlier result. Gabriel Martinelli’s stoppage-time miss at Brentford epitomised a profligacy that has replaced last season’s supposed nerves.

Fixtures, too, are tilting blue. City’s next five league assignments feature only one top-half opponent, Newcastle, whereas Arsenal must navigate the north London derby, a resurgent Chelsea, and testing trips to Wolves and Brighton before the sides collide at the Etihad in early April. That meeting could arrive with the gap shrunk further should Guardiola’s men maintain their sprint while Arsenal negotiate their minefield.

Twice before Arteta has watched a healthy lead evaporate; twice he has been left to rue what might have been. The question is no longer whether City can claw back the deficit, but whether Arsenal can arrest the slide before the pendulum completes its inevitable arc. For the first time since August, the momentum residing in Manchester feels heavier than the mathematics suggest.