How the Champions League round of 16 draw looks like shaping up after play-off first legs

The landscape of this season’s Champions League knockout phase began to crystallise after a dramatic set of play-off first legs, leaving several heavyweight names on the brink of elimination and allowing the competition’s last-16 bracket to take early, identifiable shape.

With the second-leg ties still to come, each of the clubs currently lying in the top-eight automatic-qualification slots already know they can face only one of two possible opponents, all of whom must first finish the job in next week’s return fixtures. Crucially for English audiences, every potential path through the round of 16 now features at least one Premier League representative.

Galatasaray’s stunning 5-2 home triumph over Juventus in Istanbul leaves the Turkish giants all but assured of progress and on course to meet either Liverpool or Tottenham. Liverpool, beaten 1-0 by Gala in the league phase back in September, would prefer to avoid a reunion, yet the alternative route for Jürgen Klopp’s side would pit them against the winner of Club Brugge’s 3-3 thriller with Atlético Madrid. Liverpool opened their European campaign with a 3-2 success over Atlético, while a meeting with Brugge would revive memories of the 1978 European Cup final, won 1-0 by the Reds at Wembley.

Spurs, meanwhile, have their own history with Gala—defeated 3-2 by the Turks in last season’s Europa League group stage—and have not crossed paths with Brugge since 2006 or Atlético since 1963, adding a layer of narrative to whichever tie materialises.

Arsenal appear destined for German opposition after Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen both secured 2-0 first-leg advantages over Atalanta and Olympiacos respectively. The Gunners have never faced either club in a knockout tie; all eight previous meetings with Dortmund came in the old group format, while Leverkusen last encountered Arsenal in the now-defunct second group stage of 2002. Should the German clubs close out their ties, Bayern Munich would take the remaining English opponent in that segment of the draw.

Chelsea’s potential adversaries are equally intriguing. Newcastle United’s 6-1 demolition of Qarabag in Azerbaijan makes the Magpies near-certain participants, setting up the possibility of a first-ever European clash between the two Premier League sides. Newcastle could yet be replaced by Barcelona, 2-1 victors at St James’ Park in September, while Chelsea must also monitor the Parisian derby: PSG hold a 3-2 lead over Monaco, whom the Blues last met in the 2004 semi-finals.

Manchester City, finally, could be handed a daunting Scandinavian return should Bodo/Glimt protect their 3-1 advantage against Inter. The Norwegians have already accounted for Atlético Madrid and, memorably, City themselves this term. Alternatively, Pep Guardiola’s outfit might face the winner of Real Madrid’s 1-0 lead over Benfica—José Mourinho’s Benfica—rekindling one of the modern game’s most storied managerial rivalries.

With the second legs poised to confirm the final 16, the draw is already beginning to whisper its storylines: English clubs scattered across every branch of the bracket, vengeance missions, historic reunions and the prospect of seismic upsets should any first-leg leaders falter.