Fantasy Baseball Rankings 2026: Busts from proven MLB model that called Spencer Strider's disappointing season

The calendar has barely flipped to 2026, yet early drafters are already dissecting every projection sheet and ADP column in search of an edge. One voice that resonated loudly a year ago belonged to SportsLine’s Projection Model, the same engine that forecast Spencer Strider’s 2025 collapse when most platforms still ranked him among the top 30 starting pitchers. Strider’s 7-14 record, 4.45 ERA and 131 strikeouts across 147⅓ innings—plus another month-long IL stint—left owners who trusted the model’s SP74 projection celebrating while those who invested an ADP of 97.81 scrambling for replacements.

With Opening Day approaching, the SportsLine team has refreshed its daily-updated 2026 rankings and cheat sheets, once again flagging a handful of high-profile names whose market price, they argue, overshoots realistic expectation. Two standouts headline this year’s caution list.

Jacob Misiorowski, Milwaukee’s electric right-hander, captivated baseball last June by spinning 11 no-hit innings to begin his career and earning an All-Star nod after only five starts. His 99.3 mph average fastball ranked fifth among qualifiers, and a 1.50 October ERA further cemented the legend. Yet between the Midsummer Classic and the postseason, Misiorowski’s ERA ballooned to 6.03 over his final eight starts as opponents adjusted to his power repertoire. Despite those red flags, his NFBC average draft position sits at 114—inside the top 30 starting pitchers. SportsLine’s algorithm projects a finish barely inside the top 100 arms, labeling the 23-year-old a prime bust candidate.

Pete Alonso’s move from Queens to Baltimore generated headlines after the 31-year-old slugged 38 homers and drove in 126 runs last season. A third-round ADP (33 overall) reflects confidence that Camden Yards will keep the “Polar Bear” in orbit. The model, however, points to a career-best .305 batting average on balls in play and a career-low 8.6 percent walk rate as indicators of impending regression. Alonso’s 5.4 percent home-run rate was his second-lowest across seven seasons, continuing a two-year downtrend. SportsLine equates his 2026 value with Cubs first baseman Michael Busch—currently flying off the board seven rounds later—making Alonso another recommended fade.

The algorithm also hints at an unnamed All-Star ace expected to tumble outside the top 30 at his position despite a present sixth-round price tag, though that name remains locked behind SportsLine’s paywall. Daily updates will reflect any late-breaking free-agent signings or injury news that could shuffle the board.

For managers mapping out a title run, the takeaway is familiar: avoid land-mines as aggressively as you chase breakouts. Last year’s Strider miss cost early drafters roughly 200 points of earned value in standard scoring formats. Fading Misiorowski, Alonso and the mystery ace in 2026 could provide the same swing-room when championship belts are tightened in October.