Champions League round of 16 predictions: Real Madrid over Man City

Budapest’s Puskas Arena is already looming on the horizon, but first comes a February freight train of heavyweight collisions that could detonate the bracket before spring even begins. The freshly drawn round of 16, whose first legs kick off 10-11 March and conclude a week later, has thrown up an immediate blockbuster: Real Madrid versus Manchester City, a rivalry renewed for the fifth straight campaign and one the Spanish giants are tipped to survive.

Silver Path minefield The tie sits in the so-called Silver Path, a seven-club gauntlet that also houses Paris Saint-Germain, Chelsea, Bayern Munich, Atalanta, Liverpool and Galatasaray but guarantees only one finalist. Madrid’s edge, according to the projections, rests on a single swing duel: Antonio Rüdiger’s serial dominance over Erling marksman Erling Haaland, who has fired blanks in his last four meetings with the Merengue back line. With Kylian Mbappé averaging a goal per game against City (seven in seven), the balance tilts toward the Bernabéu.

Elsewhere on the Silver side, PSG are expected to avenge last summer’s FIFA Club World Cup final loss to Chelsea once Ousmane Dembélé and Fabian Ruiz return from the treatment room, while Liverpool—despite a patchy autumn—should outlast a Galatasaray side that still can’t buy an away win in England. Bayern’s firepower, now supplemented by a fit-again Jamal Musiala flanking Harry Kane, is forecast to end Atalanta’s Italian rescue mission, teeing up a Munich-Madrid semi-final that lands Bayern in the final.

Blue Path clarity The Blue Path offers a cleaner narrative: Barcelona to edge a depleted Newcastle before dispatching Premier League leaders Arsenal in a semifinal war of attrition. Mikel Arteta’s side, locked in a domestic dogfight with City, are still expected to see off Bayer Leverkusen and then the winner of Sporting CP-Bodø/Glimt, the Norwegian champions tipped to ride their Arctic advantage into the last eight.

Atletico Madrid, bolstered by Alexander Sorloth and Julian Alvarez, are projected to compound Tottenham’s domestic misery, while Diego Simeone’s men should cruise into the quarters alongside Barça and Arsenal.

Final forecast Come 30 May, the model points to a Bayern-Barcelona showdown, denying Europe another Clásico final by a single tie in the Silver Path. For City, the consolation prize will have to wait; for Madrid, the road to Budapest runs through Manchester, and the verdict says they will navigate it—just.