Champions League projections: Bayern overtake Arsenal as favourites, holders PSG on the rise

Bayern Munich’s statement 6-1 demolition of Atalanta in Bergamo has catapulted them above Arsenal as the new Opta-projected favourites to lift the European Cup, while reigning champions Paris Saint-Germain have doubled their title odds after a swaggering 5-2 first-leg win over Chelsea.

The Bavarians’ blitz, featuring goals from five different scorers and a virtuoso display from Michael Olise, lifted Vincent Kompany’s side to a 41 per cent chance of reaching the final and a 61 per cent likelihood of a semi-final berth. The result sees Bayern leapfrog Arsenal, who slipped to second in the probability table despite remaining narrow favourites to progress past Bayer Leverkusen.

Mikel Arteta’s Gunners laboured to a 1-1 draw in Germany, rescued only by Kai Havertz’s late penalty. Opta still gives the Londoners a 77 per cent shot at advancing on Tuesday and a 65 per cent chance of a last-four appearance, yet creative woes from wide areas and a dwindling set-piece return—just three Champions League goals from corners compared with 16 in domestic competition—have seen their title projection trimmed.

Paris, meanwhile, have reignited belief that last season’s treble was no fleeting triumph. A 5-2 Parc des Princes rout of Chelsea, fuelled by a scarcely believable 4.1 expected-goals overperformance, doubled their championship probability to 10 per cent and hoisted their semi-final chances to 56 per cent. Luis Enrique’s squad appear to be peaking at the opportune moment, even as injuries had previously clouded their winter form.

Elsewhere, Real Madrid’s Federico Valverde plundered a first-half hat-trick to power the Spanish giants to a 3-0 lead over Manchester City, giving Carlo Ancelotti’s successors an 84 per cent chance of quarter-final progression, while Norwegian upstarts Bodo/Glimt continued their giant-killing run with a 3-0 thumping of Sporting CP and an 87 per cent likelihood of reaching the last eight.

Atletico Madrid ruthlessly exposed Tottenham’s travel sickness, racing into a 3-0 lead inside 16 minutes and finishing 5-2 ahead, leaving Spurs with a mere three per cent hope of overturning the deficit at home. Liverpool, defeated 1-0 by Galatasaray in Istanbul, retain a slender 51 per cent edge to advance thanks to a UEFA-imposed closed door at Anfield for the second leg.

Barcelona escaped St James’ Park with a 1-1 draw after Malick Thiaw’s stoppage-time penalty, yet Opta still rates the Catalans at 68 per cent to progress and has upped their title odds to 11 per cent. Newcastle, brilliant for long spells, must now chase the tie in Spain with only a 32 per cent chance of progression.

With Leverkusen buoyed by their disciplined 1-1 result in Leverkusen and City given a 16 per cent shot at clawing back a three-goal hole at the Etihad, the round-of-16 second legs promise tension across the board. Yet the overarching narrative is clear: Bayern’s ruthless resurgence and PSG’s timely surge have redrawn the tournament’s battle lines, leaving Arsenal with genuine competition for the tag of team-to-beat.