Champions League last-16 odds: Can the Premier League’s six representatives progress?

The Champions League returns this week with the last-16 ties, and England’s half-dozen survivors are all priced to dream of lifting the trophy in May. From Manchester City’s 15/2 quote to Tottenham’s 15/8 to oust Atlético Madrid, the bookmakers see routes forward for every Premier League flag-bearer—some more plausible than others.

Liverpool, 9/1 third-favourites behind Arsenal (9/4) and City, open the English account on Tuesday against a Galatasaray side that has already toppled Juventus and beat the Reds 1-0 in September. With Victor Osimhen on seven goals—bettered only by Mbappé, Kane and Haaland—the Nigerian is 7/5 to strike again, while both teams’ attacking instincts make the 4/9 quote for over 2.5 goals look conservative.

Tottenham, mired in a domestic relegation scrap, travel to Madrid at 15/8 to reach their first quarter-final since 2019. Atlético have seen three or more goals in 15 of their last 24 fixtures, pushing the over-3.5 coupon to 15/8, and in-form Alexander Sørloth is 10/11 to add to his six goals in five games.

Newcastle’s St James’ Park has lost some of its old swagger—four home defeats in six—and Barcelona’s 16-year-old whirlwind Lamine Yamal, 10 goals in 13 appearances, is 8/11 to score or assist and 6/4 to draw three-plus fouls against a side without a clean sheet in 13 matches.

Arsenal, the only outfit still sporting a perfect European record, visit Bayer Leverkusen on Wednesday. Mikel Arteta’s defence has conceded just four times in eight league-phase games, so the German champions are 6/5 to score under 0.5 goals, while Crystal Palace loanee Eberechi Eze, three in four, is an eye-catching 12/5 to net for Leverkusen.

Chelsea, winners of the Club World Cup in December, face a PSG outfit that has lost its last two home games to Monaco. The Parisians’ wobble gives the Blues a 5/6 double-chance edge, with João Pedro—11 in 12 under Liam Rosenior—priced at 21/10 to score and both teams to score trading at 8/15.

Finally, the competition’s most familiar modern rivalry resumes as Manchester City meet Real Madrid for a fifth consecutive knockout campaign. An 11-game unbeaten streak leaves City at 1/4 double chance, while Vinícius Júnior, six goals in seven, is 6/5 to score or assist despite the continued absence of Haaland and Mbappé through injury.

With six English clubs still in the draw and the outright market led by Arsenal ahead of Liverpool and City, the Premier League has never had a better numerical chance to reclaim Europe’s premier prize—though the path is strewn with pitfalls from Istanbul to Madrid.