Bracketology: Illinois jumps UConn for final No. 1 spot, Arizona's edge for top overall seed remains slim

The race for the 2026 NCAA Tournament’s No. 1 seeds tightened considerably after Friday night’s results, as Illinois overtook UConn for the last spot on the top line in the latest CBS Sports Bracketology update. The shake-up comes despite the Huskies owning both a head-to-head victory over the Illini and one fewer loss on the season.

The catalyst was UConn’s 81-72 defeat at St. John’s, a result that highlighted once again how little weight the selection model places on either loss total or direct match-ups. Illinois now sits with six Quad 1 wins and four Quad 1A victories, compared to UConn’s five and three, respectively. The Illini also enjoy superior rankings in both the NET and KenPom metrics, tipping the scales in a comparison that could remain fluid well into March.

At the very top of the bracket, Arizona clings to the No. 1 overall seed, but its margin over Duke and Michigan is razor-thin. The Wildcats remain the only unbeaten high-major team and lead the nation with ten Quad 1 wins after Arizona State’s recent rise in the NET retroactively upgraded their Jan. 31 victory in Tempe. Even so, Duke—21-1 overall—continues to pace the country in Wins Above Bubble (7.83) and owns five Quad 1A triumphs to Arizona’s four, keeping the Blue Devils within striking distance.

The episode evokes memories of last March, when Auburn secured the No. 1 overall seed despite five losses and a combined 0-2 record against fellow top seeds Duke and Florida. The Tigers prevailed because they topped the nation in Quad 1 victories (16) and Quad 1A wins (9), leading both WAB and Strength of Record—metrics that again appear poised to drive the committee’s deliberations.

Saturday’s marquee slate, headlined by Duke’s visit to North Carolina, could further scramble the top line. A Blue Devil victory might nudge them back ahead of Arizona in the NET and solidify their WAB lead, while any stumble would open the door for Michigan—currently third among No. 1 seeds—to press its own case.

With Selection Sunday still weeks away, the lesson from both last year and the current projection is clear: volume of high-quality wins, not sheer number of losses or head-to-head results, will decide who ultimately claims the sport’s most coveted perches.