Aston Villa vs. Leeds: Premier League betting odds, prediction, pick

Villa Park sets the stage on Saturday, Feb. 21 as Aston Villa welcomes Leeds United with top-four ambitions still flickering. Unai Emery’s side sits third on the Premier League table, eight points adrift of leaders Arsenal and holding a match in hand, yet recent form has offered pause for thought. Villa have collected only one victory from their last four competitive outings, most notably a 3-1 home defeat to Newcastle in the FA Cup that ended their cup run and raised questions about squad depth.

Across the halfway line, Leeds arrive in 15th place, six points above the relegation line and quietly buoyant after a 2-1 FA Cup replay win at Birmingham City. Daniel Farke’s men have lost just once in their previous five league fixtures, a sequence that has steadied nerves after an erratic start to the campaign.

Historical precedent favors the hosts. Villa prevailed 2-1 at Elland Road in late November, extending a stretch that has seen them claim four wins and two draws from the last six league meetings with the Whites. That recent dominance, coupled with Villa’s formidable home record under Emery, tilts the pre-match narrative toward the Midlands club.

Oddsmakers have responded accordingly. DraftKings lists Villa as -165 favorites (risk $165 to win $100), with Leeds priced at +425 and the draw at +310. The total is set at 2.5 goals, with the over juiced to -120, reflecting expectations of an open contest. For prop hunters, Ollie Watkins is the +135 anytime goal-scorer favorite, while Leeds’ Patrick Bamford sits at +220 to find the net.

Prediction: Villa’s need is greater, their ceiling higher, and their recent hiccups appear more blip than trend. Expect a fast start and a 2-1 home victory that keeps Emery’s outsiders within striking distance of the summit.