Arsenal and Manchester City are each others' main quadruple obstacles — Who will win more trophies?

London — The 2025-26 season has boiled down to a private duel. After another flawless weekend, Arsenal and Manchester City remain locked in a Premier League title race so tight that their greatest threat to rewriting the history books is not a dark-horse contender, but one another. Both clubs enter the final furlong alive for an unprecedented quadruple, and every remaining fixture feels like a potential swing of the pendulum.

Mikel Arteta’s side sit top of the table, buoyed by the league’s best defensive record, an industry-leading expected-goal difference of +29.2, and Viktor Gyokeres, the first Arsenal player to reach double-digit league goals this term. Pep Guardiola’s City trail narrowly yet ominously, powered by Erling Haaland’s 29 strikes and a midfield still orchestrated by a fit-again Rodri. The numbers are tantalisingly close: the clubs have created 85 “big chances” apiece, and Arsenal shade City for final-third ball-winning duels.

Domestically, the rivals are on a collision course. They meet in the League Cup final at Wembley on 22 March, a showdown that will be preceded by two cup elimination days. Arsenal expect to negotiate an FA Cup fifth-round trip to Mansfield Town on 7 March; City must survive a far stiffer examination at Newcastle United the same afternoon. Three league fixtures apiece follow before the Wembley summit, meaning squad rotation and nerve will be tested to the limit.

In Europe, the Champions League landscape tilts slightly toward the Gunners. Arsenal, 2-0 playoff victors, await the winners of Dortmund-Leverkusen or Atalanta-Olympiacos for their Round-of-16 tie, whereas City could face anyone from Bodo/Glimt to Real Madrid or Inter Milan. Should both progress, the quarter-final scheduling again favors Arsenal: Bournemouth at home between legs, while City travel to Chelsea days before a seismic league meeting with the Gunners. Semi-final sandwich fixtures read Fulham for Arsenal, Everton for City.

Recent head-to-head form adds spice. City dominated the early Arteta era, winning eight of the first nine meetings, but they have not beaten Arsenal in the last six encounters, a sequence that includes three draws and a penalty-shootout loss. Bookmakers still rate City slight favorites to lift the League Cup, yet Arsenal remain odds-on to retain top spot in the league and are joint-favorites with Bayern Munich for European glory. Most shops list the Gunners as FA Cup front-runners as well.

So, who finishes with more silver? The path is treacherous for both. City must conquer Newcastle, a resurgent Chelsea, and probably another European heavyweight before contemplating a league decider against Arsenal at the Etihad, a match Arteta’s men could afford to draw. Arsenal’s run-in is marginally softer — their remaining league schedule is judged four per cent easier — and their points advantage means destiny rests in their hands.

City’s trump card is two-leg inevitability. Over 180 minutes, Guardiola’s blend of Haaland’s ruthlessness and Rodri’s control can wear down any opponent, even if the Premier League asks one final push against direct rivals. Arsenal’s trump card is balance: the stingiest back line, Europe’s only perfect group-stage record this term, and a growing belief that a decade-long trophy hunt is about to end in a cascade.

The verdict? If forced to play the series ten times, a composite Best XI would give City the edge in goal and up front, but Arsenal would dominate the defensive unit and probably the midfield. A 3-5-2 projection feels right: City just noses the hypothetical set, yet Arsenal currently own the better cards on the table.

Come late May, one club may celebrate a double, even a treble. The other may be left to rue what might have been. For now, the only certainty is that neither can escape the other — and the team that solves that riddle will likely walk away with the bulk of the 2025-26 silverware.