2026 NFL Combine: Did Caleb Downs make a mistake not working out?

Indianapolis—For weeks the conversation around Ohio State safety Caleb Downs has been simple: lock-in top-15 pick, move the tape to the next prospect. Downs, fully healthy after a 90-tackle, five-interception season, elected to wait for Ohio State’s Pro Day rather than take the Lucas Oil Stadium field, a decision that felt harmless when the combine began.

Forty-eight hours later the calculus has shifted.

A historic wave of speed swept through the defensive back workouts, turning the safety group into the star attraction. Lorenzo Styles Jr., transitioning from nickel corner to safety, blazed a 4.27-second 40-yard dash, the fastest time of the entire combine. Oregon’s Dillon Thieneman answered with a 4.35 at 201 pounds and added a 41-inch vertical. South Carolina’s Jalon Kilgore, all 6-foot-1 and 210 pounds of him, posted a 4.40 and led all safeties with a 10-foot-10 broad jump. Even Texas safety Michael Taaffe, whose 4.50 was the slowest among the headline group, would have been the envy of many cornerback classes.

The numbers forced a re-evaluation of the pecking order. Thieneman, Toledo’s Emmanuel McNeil-Warren and Downs had been viewed as a tiered-but-interchangeable top trio. After Thursday, two of them have fresh 2026 combine data points; Downs does not.

NFL evaluators now face a two-track debate. Track one is medical and psychological: does skipping an optional but highly publicized stage signal a lack of competitive fire, or is it prudent risk management? Track two is contextual: when a position group sets combine records, the absence of a marquee name becomes a data point in itself.

Downs’s camp argues his film, size (6-0, 205) and verified athleticism from last year’s Ohio State testing leave little to gain. Critics counter that the safety market just recalibrated upward, and a 4.35-4.40 from Downs could have stamped him as the clear CB1/S1 hybrid in a league desperate for matchup defenders.

History offers mixed precedent. Last year a pair of highly graded edge rushers waited for pro days; one remained a top-10 selection, the other slid to the back of the first round after teammates posted elite numbers in Indianapolis. The difference was one or two impactful snaps on Thursday night tape watched by every general manager.

The Giants, repeatedly mentioned in league circles as hunting secondary help, now have an even wider menu. Charles Demmings of Stephen F. Austin used a 4.41 forty, 40-inch vertical and 11-foot broad jump to go from small-school curiosity to likely Day 2 pick. Toriano Pride Jr. improved his 40 from 4.38 to 4.32 on the second attempt, cementing status as the class’s fastest nickel candidate. Daylen Everette’s 4.38 and Washington’s Tacario Davis (4.41 at 6-4 with 33-inch arms) give defensive coordinators rare length-speed prototypes.

Meanwhile Downs will spend the next four weeks preparing for a pro-day workout that now carries outsized importance. A blistering forty in Columbus could re-secure his spot atop the board. Anything less and the combine’s rocket-fueled safeties will continue to close the gap—if they haven’t already passed him.

The question isn’t whether Caleb Downs is still a first-round talent; it’s whether the 2026 combine just turned his presumed slot into a wide-open race.