World Cup playoffs: Italy on edge, Sweden shorn of stars and another chance for Lewandowski

When Fabio Cannavaro hoisted the golden trophy beneath Berlin’s Olympic night sky in 2006, Italy believed the future would be a parade of similar glory. Instead, the World Cup has become a recurring nightmare: group-stage humiliation in 2010, another early exit in 2014, and two successive failures to qualify in 2018 and 2022. Now the four-time champions must survive the European playoff gauntlet simply to reach a tournament that has expanded to 48 teams and still offers only four last-chance berths for UEFA hopefuls.

Italy’s first obstacle is Northern Ireland, visiting Bergamo on Thursday for a single-elimination semifinal. Win, and Roberto Mancini’s side will travel to face either Wales or Bosnia and Herzegovina for the right to book flights across the Atlantic this summer. Anything less than victory is unthinkable for a nation that treats the sport as civic religion.

While the Azzurri shoulder the pressure, Sweden enters the fray under new long-term leadership. Graham Potter, hired last year on an emergency basis, has been rewarded with a contract through 2030 after steadying the Swedes. Yet the former Chelsea and West Ham manager must proceed without two of his brightest attackers: Newcastle forward Alexander Isak and Tottenham’s Dejan Kulusevski are both injured, leaving Potter to plot an upset of Ukraine on neutral turf in Valencia. The winner will host Poland or Albania for a place in North America.

Ukraine, still unable to stage home matches amid Russia’s ongoing invasion, carries its own emotional freight. Four years ago the team postponed its playoff semifinal in Scotland, eventually winning 3-1 at Hampden before falling to a Gareth Bale strike in the Cardiff final. Another deep run would provide rare respite for a country at war.

Poland’s campaign hinges on a familiar face. At 37, Robert Lewandowski may be staring at his final World Cup opportunity. The Barcelona striker briefly stepped away from international duty after losing the captaincy under former coach Michal Probierz, but returned in August once Jan Urban took charge and restored the armband. Lewandowski, recently playing in a protective mask after fracturing his left eye socket, now leads Poland against Albania with a quarterfinal berth at stake.

Perhaps the most remarkable story belongs to Kosovo. Less than a decade after gaining FIFA membership in May 2016, the Balkan nation stands two victories from a first World Cup appearance. German coach Franco Foda has guided Kosovo—featuring veteran Valon Berisha, who switched from Norway—to a playoff semifinal against Slovakia, a country that does not recognize its independence. A win in Bratislava would edge Kosovo closer to a sporting fairytale and underscore how quickly the global game can redraw its map.

Thursday’s playoff openers across Europe will not settle every question, but they will begin to separate dreams from despair. For Italy, the mission is simple: avoid another historic failure. For Sweden, Ukraine, Poland and Kosovo, the stakes are equally stark—one slip and the road to the 2026 World Cup ends before it truly begins.