Vikings Draft Thoughts

Minneapolis — With the NFL Draft still five weeks out, the Minnesota Vikings are carrying more urgency into late April than most 8-9 clubs. An offseason that began with the dismissal of general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah has left the franchise’s long-term roster plan in the hands of an interim front office, a respected but green decision-making structure, and a coaching staff that knows the window to contend is narrowing faster than the salary-cap spreadsheet says it should.

Team president Mark Wilf did not mince words when he announced Adofo-Mensah’s exit on Jan. 30: the Vikings must “re-establish the draft as the lifeblood of the roster.” The numbers explain why. From 2022-25, no club harvested fewer approximate-value points above historical expectation than Minnesota, according to Pro Football Reference’s AV-over-expectation model. Two first-round defenders — safety Lewis Cine and cornerback Andrew Booth — have combined for virtually no return. Quarterback J.J. McCarthy, selected 10th overall last April, has logged only four AV; Bo Nix, taken two slots later, already sits at 26. Fourth-round cornerback Khyree Jackson’s tragic death last summer only added to the ledger of misfortune.

The result is a roster that has papered over draft shortcomings with selective free-agency strikes. Signing Andrew Van Ginkel, Jonathan Greenard and Blake Cashman in 2026 jump-started a defense that helped Minnesota stay in playoff contention until Week 17. Sam Darnold’s $10 million deal stabilized the quarterback room while McCarthy red-shirted. Yet the front office cognoscenti inside TCO Performance Center understand the ceiling of that approach. Free agents arrive older, costlier and without the developmental upside that fills out the back half of every 53-man roster. “Draft-and-develop” is not sloganeering in the NFC North; it is survival.

Survival, however, now rests with an unfamiliar cast. Salary-cap architect Rob Brzezinski will run the draft room for the first time in his two-decade tenure. Co-assistant GMs Ryan Grigson and Demetrius Washington will anchor scouting, but head coach Kevin O’Connell and defensive coordinator Brian Flores are expected to wield unusual influence — Flores especially after the franchise doubled down on his vision with a January extension. The coach already reshaped the defensive depth chart this month, parting with high-priced interior linemen Javon Hargrave and Jonathan Allen, two 2026 additions whose scheme fit and locker-room chemistry never matched their paychecks.

Flores’ preferences figure to steer a four-pick top-100 haul that currently sits at No. 18 overall, 50th, 81st and 98th. Minnesota does not own a fourth-round choice but holds a fifth, sixth and three sevenths. League sources believe the Vikings will lean defense early, targeting an interior lineman or hybrid safety who can execute the multiplicity Flores demands. Cornerback is also in play after the team met with San Diego State’s Chris Johnson (6-0, 193, 4.43 speed) at his pro day and again on a Top-30 visit. Offensive line help could arrive on Day 2; Clemson’s Tristan Leigh has already been in for a private workout, and Oregon’s Alex Harkey followed his pro-day performance with a one-on-one session in Floweryer.

Skill-position meetings have raised eyebrows. Georgia State’s big-bodied WR Ted Hurst and Penn State RB Kaytron Allen were both formally interviewed at the combine, fueling speculation that Tai Felton’s readiness as WR3 is not yet trusted. Running back looks like a late-round flier at best after formal interviews with Nebraska’s Emmett Johson and North Carolina Central’s Chris Mosley.

Inside the building, decision-makers insist the board remains fluid. Brzezinski has spent March gathering intel from agents and rival executives; Grigson leans on five years of experience as Indianapolis’ GM; Washington overlays an analytics model borrowed from their shared San Francisco roots. Yet the tiebreaker may ultimately belong to Flores, who began his NFL climb as a Patriots scout and still calls personnel work his “favorite part of the job.” Expect Minnesota’s first three selections to carry his fingerprints — high-motor front-seven pieces and three-down linebackers who can blitz, traits reflected in visits with Gracen Halton and Anthony Hill Jr.

The stakes are obvious. Harrison Smith, if he returns, will be 37. Aaron Jones turns 32. Eight other projected 2027 starters are already 30 or older. The Vikings can’t buy their next nucleus; they must draft it. Whether an interim GM, a reshuffled scouting department and an ascendant defensive coordinator can reverse four years of draft-day decline will determine whether 2026’s near-miss was a speed bump or the start of a free fall.

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