Tottenham v Arsenal picks and markets: Over five yellow cards and Solanke to score?

Sunday’s north London derby arrives with the stakes cranked higher than ever. Arsenal, still top of the Premier League after Wednesday’s shock collapse at Wolves, cannot afford another slip if they wish to keep Chelsea and Manchester City at arm’s length. Tottenham, only five points above the relegation zone and winless in 15 of their last 17 league outings, greet new interim boss Igor Tudor with a blunt ultimatum: find points fast or risk a plunge into the Championship.

Tudor’s first-team sheet will be pieced together from the treatment table. Cristian Romero’s latest red card, his second in ten matches, rules him out alongside long-term absentees Rodrigo Bentancur, Kevin Danso, Mohammed Kudus, Wilson Odobert, Djed Spence and Destiny Udogie. In total, 11 players missed the Newcastle defeat that sealed Thomas Frank’s exit; Odobert has since joined them in the physio room. The Croatian’s preferred back-three system, used in 120 of his last 124 league games at Juventus, Lazio and Marseille, may at least provide a defensive shield for a squad down to its bare bones.

That rearguard will need to improve on numbers that make grim reading: two home clean sheets all season, 1.5-plus goals conceded in six of the last eight league games at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, and at least two goals shipped in each of the last six Premier League fixtures overall. Arsenal to score over 1.5 goals is therefore priced at 4/6, tempting given the Gunners have struck seven times in their last three away league contests.

Mikel Arteta’s side, however, have shown a recent brittleness against deep blocks, drawing 1-1 at Brentford and labouring against Wolves. Injuries to Kai Havertz and Martin Odegaard have forced experimentation: Bukayo Saka was deployed as a central No. 10 in mid-week, while Noni Madueke, who fired three shots against Wolves, is 4/6 to replicate that output on Sunday.

Tottenham’s attacking hope rests largely on Dominic Solanke, whose four goals in six games have offered rare cheer. He is 3/1 to add another against Arsenal, who routed Spurs 4-1 in September’s reverse fixture. Whether Spurs can craft chances may depend on how effectively Tudor’s wing-backs can spring counters before Arsenal settle.

Discipline could prove equally decisive. The last 13 north London derbies have averaged 5.3 yellow cards; the line is set at five this weekend. Martin Zubimendi, carded recently against Chelsea, Liverpool and Sunderland, is 23/10 to be cautioned and 10/11 to commit two or more fouls when up against dribbler Xavi Simons.

A draw, available at 5/2, would feel like gold for Spurs and a dent for Arsenal, who have already dropped points to two of the current bottom four in 2025. Yet anything less than victory for the hosts would leave them staring at the relegation trapdoor, while a Gunners defeat would intensify whispers of another late-season title fade.

By the final whistle, one narrative will crystallise: either Arsenal reassert their championship credentials, or Tottenham’s survival mission gains vital momentum under a new commander. In a derby that rarely lacks drama, Sunday’s plotlines promise to be season-defining.