The Business of Football: How many players do you need to win a World Cup anyway?

By Matt Slater | The Athletic UK

Birmingham — Stop me if you’ve heard this one before, but the Premier League and the English Football Association are at war again. The latest skirmish over club-versus-country rights arrives at a delicate moment: England sit inside FIFA’s top five, Thomas Tuchel’s side are second-favourites in most World Cup markets, and 16-year-old Max Dowman has just become the Premier League’s youngest goalscorer. All of which suggests the production line is humming. Yet the numbers tell a different story.

Of the 296 starters and substitutes who featured on the most recent Premier League weekend, only 82 (28 per cent) are eligible for England. The share of minutes banked by England-qualified players (EQPs) is even lower: just under 26 per cent. Tuchel’s first squad since taking charge contained 35 names but still omitted Trent Alexander-Arnold and six others who would have strolled into previous eras. The manager has also been forced to call three goalkeepers who, between them, have started only 12 league matches this season.

So how many players does a country actually need to win a World Cup? Argentina used 23 in Qatar. Tuchel can currently pick five EQPs who play Champions League minutes every week and a scattering of dual-nationals who might have worn the Three Lions had the FA courted them earlier. The Premier League, when pressed, cites those facts and argues that 30 years of foreign imports have raised technical standards to the point where any regular starter — English or not — is operating at or near international level.

The stand-off matters because the FA controls the post-Brexit work-permit system. In 2023 it granted clubs an “elite significant contribution” (ESC) loophole: four foreign teenagers per season for top-tier sides, two for League One and Two, even if the players fall short of the points-based threshold. Hidden in the small print is a trigger: if EQP minutes drop below 25 per cent in any division, the FA can scrap the ESC route overnight. With the Premier League hovering just above that line, the governing body has begun brandishing the clause.

That threat framed last month’s EFL conference at The Belfry, where officials from the FA, Premier League and EFL tried to sell a compromise. The proposal would allow Premier League academies to send youngsters on short “development loans” outside the traditional window-to-window rules, and add two extra group games to the EFL Trophy featuring Under-21 sides. In return, the Professional Game Youth Fund would receive an extra £16 million over three years — roughly £175-200 k per academy depending on category.

Many EFL chairmen balked. They do not want more fixtures against youth teams that fans refuse to watch, and they fear another wave of Premier League loanees will crowd out their own academy graduates. Some asked why their access to foreign talent should be jeopardised because top-flight clubs stockpile overseas players, then demand lower-division sides solve the minutes problem for them.

The loan plan is now on hold, but the broader financial fight shows no sign of ending. The EFL wants the Premier League to pool broadcast revenues and split them 75-25, scrapping parachute payments that currently give relegated clubs a trampoline back to the top flight. The Premier League, while insisting its “door is always open”, will restart talks only if the EFL drops the parachute issue and accepts a 4:1 merit rake in the Championship. The EFL has countered with a 2:1 rake across both leagues to soften the promotion-relegation cliff edge. Negotiations remain stalled.

Enter the independent football regulator, legally able to impose a settlement yet publicly reluctant to do so. Chair David Kogan reiterated at the recent Financial Times Business of Football summit that he would rather the game govern itself. Whether the parties can find common ground before legislation forces one upon them is the multibillion-pound question.

In the meantime, Tuchel must prepare for a summer World Cup with a talent pool that looks deep at first glance but shallow once minutes, form and fitness are examined. The answer to how many players you need to win a tournament is, in theory, 23. In practice, England may discover that the real number is however many can get on the pitch in the Premier League between now and kick-off in the United States.