Supercomputer Predicts 2025–26 Champions League Winner As Last 16 Teams Set

London—With the Champions League field trimmed to its final 16, Opta’s supercomputer has crunched the probabilities and installed Arsenal as clear favourites to lift the trophy in Budapest next May. Mikel Arteta’s side, flawless in the league phase with eight wins from eight and not a single minute spent behind on the scoreboard, have been given the strongest chance of ending the club’s 20-year wait for European glory.

Bayern Munich, spearheaded by Harry Kane and Michael Olise, sit second in the forecast despite November’s 3-1 defeat at the Emirates, a result that underlined Arsenal’s continental authority. The algorithm cannot yet account for Friday’s round-of-16 draw, but it already flags a potential stumbling block for the Bundesliga giants: should both clubs advance, they cannot meet again until the final.

Manchester City and Liverpool, each recent champions of the competition, are next in the pecking order. Yet neither leads the Premier League at present, and both are judged to carry exploitable flaws over two-legged ties. Barcelona, Chelsea, Newcastle United and holders Paris Saint-Germain have been lumped into a high-risk quadrant; PSG’s 4.27 % retention probability is the lowest for a defending champion at this stage in the data set, largely because they must navigate either Barcelona or Chelsea in the last 16 while the unlucky loser of that pairing will confront a Newcastle side fresh from scoring nine past Qarabağ in the playoffs.

Remarkably, 14-time winners Real Madrid are rated less likely to prevail than Newcastle, a verdict that flies in the face of the competition’s modern history. Pep Guardiola’s old warning—“Real Madrid are the kings of this competition”—rings hollow inside the model, which instead favours Sporting CP to reach the quarter-finals ahead of Álvaro Arbeloa’s squad.

Tottenham, fourth in the league-phase table, are given only a 1.67 % shot at overall victory. Spurs’ immediate path is intertwined with Liverpool’s: both English clubs await either Atlético Madrid or Galatasaray. While Gala’s seven-goal dismantling of Juventus turned heads, Atlético’s once-impregnable defence has leaked 15 goals across eight European outings, four more than Cypriot minnows Pafos.

Arsenal and Bayern, by finishing first and second, are guaranteed separate halves of the bracket until a potential final, teeing up the possibility of an all-Premier League semi-final should City or Liverpool also progress. The Gunners’ relative inexperience—one final appearance, in 2006—will be weaponised by domestic rivals who have contested six finals between them since that Paris defeat to Barcelona. Still, the algorithm insists Arsenal’s present form trumps pedigree.

Thomas Tuchel, who captured the trophy with Chelsea in 2021 after heartbreak with PSG the previous year, once called the tournament “the most beautiful competition but the most difficult.” Difficult, yes—but increasingly predictable, at least to the silicon minds at Opta.

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