Spurs, Leeds, Forest and West Ham: Relegation fears? Who could go down instead of you?

By The Athletic Staff

Sunday’s results have thrown the Premier League relegation fight into sharper focus than ever. Leeds United’s 0-0 draw with Brentford, West Ham United’s 1-0 loss at Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest’s stunning 3-0 win at Tottenham Hotspur have compressed the bottom half of the table, leaving four famous clubs looking over their shoulders with only a handful of games remaining.

Leeds stay 15th, four points above the drop, but have not scored from open play in six league outings. West Ham remain inside the bottom three, while Forest’s victory lifts them above Spurs, who are now only two points clear of 18th place. With that in mind, The Athletic asked club correspondents to address three questions for each side: should supporters fear relegation, which rival is most likely to take their place in the Championship, and which upcoming fixture now looks season-defining.

Leeds United – 15th, 31 played Fear level: High. A promoted club four points above the relegation line always has reason to worry, and Leeds’ recent form – one win in 11 – offers little comfort. The lack of creativity is stark; the only open-play goal in more than a month came via a Chelsea defensive error.

Most likely to go down instead: Tottenham. Spurs’ talent is undeniable, but the mood inside the club has darkened after Sunday’s collapse. A managerial change could yet galvanise them, yet the possibility of a freefall remains real.

Must-win match: Home to bottom club Wolverhampton Wanderers on 20 April. Fail to beat the league’s worst side and the anxiety around Elland Road will become deafening.

Nottingham Forest – 16th, 31 played Fear level: Cautiously optimistic. Back-to-back wins over Midtjylland in the Europa League play-off and Spurs in the league have injected belief. Vitor Pereira has steadied the ship since replacing Ange Postecoglou in October, and the squad finally looks organised.

Most likely to go down instead: Still Tottenham. Forest have momentum; Spurs have none. West Ham and Leeds are not safe either, but the north Londoners’ downward spiral is the most pronounced.

Must-win match: Aston Villa at the City Ground on 6 April. Three points against Villa would edge Forest towards the magical 40-point mark before a daunting final quartet of fixtures.

Tottenham Hotspur – 14th, 31 played Fear level: Rising rapidly. The feel-good factor generated by creditable displays against Liverpool and Atletico Madrid evaporated inside 90 sobering minutes against Forest. Goalkeeper Guglielmo Vicario’s impending hernia operation compounds the gloom. Spurs have not won a league game since 28 December.

Most likely to go down instead: Leeds. The Yorkshire side’s scoring woes make them vulnerable, whereas West Ham, under Nuno Espirito Santo, appear mentally better equipped for a dogfight.

Must-win match: Wolves away on 25 April. Anything less than victory in the Black Country and Tottenham could enter May in the bottom three.

West Ham United – 18th, 31 played Fear level: Concerned but hopeful. Nuno has tightened the defence and restored belief since taking charge. The loss at Villa was damaging, especially after Jean-Clair Todibo’s warm-up injury and Crysencio Summerville’s calf issue, yet the underlying performances suggest improvement.

Most likely to go down instead: Tottenham. Historical data favours the Hammers: Spurs have a habit of late-season collapses, losing eight of their final ten league matches in 2023-24. West Ham will target a repeat.

Must-win match: The April trilogy – Wolves (H), Crystal Palace (A), Everton (H). Six points from those nine is the stated minimum; achieve it and survival is likely.

Bottom line With 27 points still to play for, none of the quartet can relax. Leeds need goals, Forest need to maintain momentum, Spurs need a footballing miracle and West Ham need their April schedule to deliver the points that keep the Championship at bay. The next five weeks promise tension, twists and, for one unlucky club, the unthinkable drop.

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