Serie A briefing: All of a sudden, the title race seems on again – can Allegri and Milan defy the odds?

Milan, March – When Massimiliano Allegri was eight, a Livorno bookmaker laughed at the idea that a boy from the Tuscan coast would ever command a Serie A touchline. Allegri backed a rank outsider called Minnesota anyway, watched it storm home, and pocketed the winnings with the same wry smile he wore late on Sunday night at San Siro. His Milan side had just beaten Inter 1-0 in the Derby della Madonnina, trimming the gap at the top to seven points and breathing life into a championship that looked stone-dead a week ago.

The only goal came in the 67th minute from Pervis Estupinan, the Ecuadorian full-back whose season had been stuck in reverse since a red card against Napoli in September. Handed a surprise recall after Davide Bartesaghi tweaked a hip in the dying seconds at Cremonese, Estupinan repaid Allegri’s hunch by sprinting beyond Inter wing-back Luis Henrique and lashing a left-foot volley past Yann Sommer. It was Milan’s first league double over Inter since the Alexandre Pato-inspired days of 2011 and, according to statistical models, hoisted their Scudetto probability from 2.5 per cent to something slightly less insulting.

Allegri framed the task ahead in familiar equestrian terms. “You have a horse ten furlongs ahead, 200 metres from the finish line. It’s going to be hard to catch it,” he told DAZN. Yet the very fact he is talking about a race, rather than a procession, marks a psychological shift. Inter had arrived unbeaten in 15 league matches since November and could have stretched the lead to 13 with a win; instead they now face the possibility of a sprint finish while also juggling Coppa Italia and European commitments.

Simone Inzaghi’s side were without their entire first-choice attacking trident – Lautaro Martínez, Marcus Thuram and Hakan Çalhanoğlu all injured – and started 18-year-old Francesco Pio Esposito alongside 20-year-old Ange-Yoan Bonny. The youngsters toiled against Milan’s high line, and the moment that best summed up their night arrived on 53 minutes when Federico Dimarco, the league’s form player, spooned Barella’s cut-back over an open goal when Esposito stood unmarked beside him. “Gol mangiato. Gol subito,” as the Italians say; within quarter of an hour, Estupinan had made them pay.

Inter still believe the title is theirs to lose. “At the start of the season they said we wouldn’t finish top four,” Dimarco reminded Sky. “We’re in March and seven points clear.” Yet the narrative has pivoted. Milan, free of European distractions after a Lazio cup elimination, have reduced the deficit before: in 1999 they overhauled a seven-point gap with fewer matches left. Allegri, a coach whose tactical armoury is routinely caricatured as anti-football, has now collected 60 points and kept Juventus ten behind, Como and Roma nine.

Whether this is the start of a historic comeback or merely a stay of execution depends on how Inter respond to their first league defeat since November. What is certain is that a championship that looked over is, suddenly and spectacularly, back in the saddle.