Premier League title race: Remaining schedules, predicted point totals as Arsenal looks to hold first place

London — With roughly two-thirds of the 2023-24 Premier League campaign completed, the championship picture is sharpening around a familiar question: can anyone stop Arsenal from ending a 20-year wait for domestic supremacy? The Gunners enter the final third of the season six points clear at the summit, averaging 2.24 points per match and projecting to finish in the mid-80s — a tally that, in this season’s hyper-competitive environment, may be enough to secure the club’s first crown since the Invincibles era.

Mikel Arteta’s side owe much of that optimism to the schedule. Of the four softest remaining fixture lists among contenders, Arsenal’s is the gentlest, and they no longer have to face either Manchester City or Aston Villa in direct league combat. Their trickiest segment arrives later this month: back-to-back London derbies against Tottenham Hotspur and Chelsea, separated by seven days. Negotiate that brace and the run-in is largely forgiving, book-ended by trips to Wolves, Brighton, and West Ham and home dates with Brentford, Everton, Newcastle, Fulham, and Burnley.

City, chasing a record fourth straight title, still control their own fate thanks to an April 18 home meeting with the leaders. Yet Pep Guardiola’s calendar is the most congested of any challenger. Between this weekend and the Champions League final on May 30, the champions could play anywhere from 16 to 26 matches, a gauntlet that includes Champions League knock-out rounds, FA Cup ties, and a League Cup final against Arsenal on March 22. Their Premier slate still features Chelsea and Arsenal in consecutive April weekends, either side of potential European quarter-finals.

Aston Villa’s task is the steepest. Unai Emery’s high-fliers trail Arsenal by nine points and, crucially, have no head-to-head opportunity to claw any back. Their Europa League obligations add at least four mid-week fixtures, and the domestic programme closes with visits from Liverpool and Manchester City on the season’s final weekend. The underlying numbers suggest Villa’s pace is sustainable; the table says they will need a collapse above them and a near-perfect finish of their own.

Chelsea’s path is the most treacherous. Starting on 2 March, Mauricio Pochettino’s men visit Villa Park and the Emirates within 72 hours, then host Newcastle, Everton, City, and United in a six-match sequence that could define their campaign. The fixture computer offers no respite: April brings City and United a week apart; May pairs Liverpool and Spurs in another seven-day window that could overlap with European semi-finals. A positive goal-differential offers cushion, but points remain the currency.

Manchester United’s route is mathematically kinder. Elimination from domestic cups leaves only 13 league fixtures, and meetings with Liverpool and Villa both take place at Old Trafford, where Erik ten Hag’s side have lost once in the league all season. If they maintain their current points-per-match rate (1.88) across the 39 still available, they would finish on the cusp of 70 points — a figure that historically secures top-five status and, in this compressed year, could yet enter the title conversation.

All of which underscores the prevailing theme: depth of competition has compressed the threshold for glory. The Premier League’s last three champions to break the 90-point barrier already feel like outliers; mid-80s may soon become the new benchmark. Expected-points models, often mis-applied as crystal balls, reinforce the volatility — Arsenal accrued 56 while navigating injuries to key starters; City only recently welcomed back a fully-fit Rodri; United and others lost stars to the Africa Cup of Nations. Translating past performance linearly across remaining games ignores squad rotation, opponent quality, and the fatigue multiplier of cup replays.

One weekend already circled on every calendar is 18–19 April. The fixture list throws up a potential title-deciding triple-header: City versus Arsenal at the Etihad, Chelsea hosting United at Stamford Bridge, and Everton welcoming Liverpool across Stanley Park. Should the Gunners still hold their cushion by then, a positive result in Manchester would leave the trophy’s engraver on standby. Should City prevail, the pendulum swings toward blue ribbons once more.

Until that flash-point, the narrative remains delightfully unresolved. Arsenal possess the points, the form, and the kindest schedule. City possess the pedigree and the knowledge that one hot streak can overhaul any deficit. Villa possess the outsiders’ freedom and a manager who thrives on tactical puzzles. Chelsea and United possess the possibility, however slim, that chaos theory still has a chapter to write.

In a season where 85 points may be king, every remaining matchday carries knockout-cup tension. For the first time in two decades, Arsenal enter the sprint believing the crown is theirs to lose. The rest of the contenders, cup ties permitting, intend to make sure they must still earn it.

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