Premier League predictions: Tottenham vs Forest, Newcastle vs Sunderland and the rest of Matchday 31

Matchday 31 arrives with only eight fixtures on the schedule, Manchester City and Arsenal having been displaced by Sunday’s Carabao Cup final, and the stakes could scarcely be higher at either end of the table. In The Athletic’s rolling predictions game—now entering its 31st week—writer Oliver Kay trails the subscriber panel by a single point and six-year-old Wilfred by the same margin, but a late surge inspired by Max Dowman’s stoppage-time heroics for Arsenal against Everton has reopened a contest that once looked runaway.

Kay, who correctly called both the 2-0 scoreline at the Emirates and Manchester United’s 3-1 defeat of Aston Villa last weekend, will look to capitalise on a reduced slate that still offers plenty of intrigue. Chief among the talking points is Sunday’s early kick-off at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, where Spurs and Nottingham Forest meet in what Kay labels “a scrap” with relegation implications. Neither Vitor Pereira nor Igor Tudor has yet registered a league victory, but Tottenham’s mid-week comeback to eliminate Atlético Madrid on penalties—coupled with an extra 24 hours of recovery—has persuaded Kay to abandon an initial impulse favouring Forest and side instead with a home win.

Friday night’s curtain-raiser on the south coast pits Bournemouth against a Manchester United side buoyed by Bruno Fernandes, the division’s form player. Although the Cherries are unbeaten in five previous Premier League encounters with United (two wins, three draws), Kay concedes that an away victory feels “lazy” yet unavoidable given the visitors’ attacking armoury.

Liverpool’s visit to Brighton on Saturday lunchtime triggers similar hesitation. The Seagulls have the quality to trouble Jürgen Klopp’s men, yet Kay expects the Merseysiders—fresh from a dazzling display against Galatasaray—to edge it on firepower alone. Likewise, Chelsea’s trip to Everton is framed by the Blues’ erratic form and an 8-2 aggregate humbling by Paris Saint-Germain, but their superior away record (seven league wins) trumps the Toffees’ meagre five home victories and tips the scales in favour of an away triumph.

Leeds, desperate to escape the drop zone, host Fulham at Elland Road. Marco Silva’s contract situation continues to make headlines, yet Kay believes the Cottagers’ relative stability outweighs any off-pitch uncertainty and forecasts a home success that would hand Leeds “much-needed breathing space”.

The weekend’s emotional crescendo comes at St James’ Park, where Newcastle attempt to end a league derby drought against Sunderland stretching back to August 2011. Despite the Magpies’ draining 7-2 aggregate loss to Barcelona in the Europa League, Kay trusts the fervent atmosphere and a week-old hunch to predict a Newcastle victory, reversing the outcome he foresaw—and got right—in December.

West Ham and Aston Villa close the round on Monday. Villa’s early-season over-performance of expected goals has regressed, while West Ham have flirted with extremes: dominating matches only to draw, then scoring with their sole effort to steal a point against Manchester City. Anticipating a cagey affair, Kay opts for a cheeky draw that edges David Moyes’ side closer to safety.

With only eight matches on offer, every prediction carries amplified weight. Kay, Wilfred, the rotating subscriber guest—this week Elizabeth, a 42-year-old Newcastle devotee from San Francisco—and the resident algorithm all know that a single correct scoreline could swing the season-long standings. After 30 rounds the subscribers lead Wilfred by a point; Kay lurks a further seven back; the algorithm props up the table. Matchday 31 offers no guarantees, only the promise of more drama in the race that really matters.