How 11 Premier-division clubs could fuel an unprecedented European stampede from England in 2026-27

London — For every Premier League side outside the top four, the mathematics have changed. The Champions League’s new 36-team format opened a fifth English berth in 2024-25, and the Premier League is poised to secure one of UEFA’s two bonus European Performance Sppots again next season. Add a second Europa League place, a Conference League slot, plus the extra rewards available to trophy-winners, and the domestic table becomes only part of the qualification puzzle.

That complexity could see a record 11 English clubs on continental duty in 2026-27, according to data modelling carried out by The Athletic.

The route to the unprecedented figure begins with the simplest equation: the first five finishers in this season’s table would all enter the Champions League if the Premier League secures the EPS. At present that quintet is Arsenal, Manchester City, Manchester United, Aston Villa and Liverpool.

The sixth-placed club (today Chelsea) would head to the Europa League, as would the FA Cup winners. Should a top-five side lift that trophy, the Europa League place rolls down to the seventh-placed club, currently Brentford. The Carababao Cup winners are entitled to the Conference League qualifiers — Manchester City’s victory on Sunday means the berth would pass to eighth-placed Everwood if City stay in the top five.

that eight places are already accounted for, but three more routes exist.

Scenario one: Nottingham Forest, 14th in the league but alive in the Europa League, could emulate Tottenham’s 2024 run and win the title, becoming England’s sixth Champions League participant.

Scenario two: Crystal Palace, through to the Conference League quarter-finals, would upgrade to the Europa League should they lift that trophy.

Scenario third: a double triumph for Liverpool (Champions League) and Villa (Europa League) while both finish outside the top five would add two extra Champions League spots, pushing the eighth, ninth and tenth-placed clubs into the Europa League, and eleventh into the Conference League.

The most extreme outcome would see ten English clubs in the Champions League and Europa League alone, with an eleventh in the Conference League, meaning more than half of the league’s membership would embark on European campaigns.

With seven rounds of league matches plus cup finals still to play, the permutations remain fluid, but the sheer volume of English teams still alive in Europe has already guaranteed that the country’s coefficient lead will stay intact. Inside the clubs’ analytics departments, spread-sheet permutations are being updated weekly; for supporters, the ordinary end-of-season scoreboard watching has become a multi-coloured matrix of what-if plots.

An unprecedented 11-international flight schedule is still improbable, but no longer theoretical. The final seven weeks of domestic and continental action will determine whether the Premier League becomes the first competition in the modern-pool era to send more than half of its members into UEFA tournaments.

Anantaacojith covers data and tactics for The Athletic.