From Arsenal to FK Qarabag: Why every team left will—and won’t—win the Champions League

The UEFA Champions League’s new-look league phase is history and the knockout highway begins now. Sixteen survivors will scrap over the next fortnight for the eight places still open in the round of 16, and while the bookmakers have already installed Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal as the 26.3 % favorites to lift the trophy in May, the bracket is littered with land-mines that could detonate anyone’s dream. Here is the case for—and against—every contender still standing.

Arsenal (26.3 % title odds) Why they will: The Gunners finished the league phase with eight wins, a plus-19 goal difference and the competition’s most airtight defence. Set-piece dominance, depth in every department and a front six that can alternate between velvet passing and raw power make them the most complete side left. Why they won’t: They may need to beat Borussia Dortmund and one of Real Madrid or Manchester City just to reach the semi-finals, and a rare wobble—scoreless at Nottingham Forest, beaten by Manchester United—showed the line between control and crisis is thin.

Bayern Munich (16.4 %) Why they will: Harry Kane & Co. took the most “big” shots (33 of ≥0.2 xG) and posted a plus-22 quality-chance margin, equal with Arsenal. Jamal Musiala and Alphonso Davies are back to fitness, and the attack is humming. Why they won’t: The back line has leaked 2.0-plus xG in three of its last eight matches; Arsenal already hung three goals on them in November.

Manchester City (8.9 %) Why they will: Pep Guardiola’s rotating cast—Nico O’Reilly, Abdukodir Khusanov, Rayan Cherki, Antoine Semenyo—has City unbeaten in seven and no longer reliant on Erling Haaland’s solo act. Why they won’t: Peaks have been followed by puzzling dips all year; half the key minutes are being logged by players with less than 13 months in Manchester.

Barcelona (8.2 %) Why they will: Lamine Yamal has seven goals and two assists in his last 11 games; when he’s on, the Blaugrana win 17 of 20. Why they won’t: They sit 26th in xG allowed per shot and 29th in xG per shot taken—glaring numbers for a side that still defends with a high wire.

Liverpool (8.1 %) Why they will: Since Mohamed Salah’s re-insertion, the Reds have scored 20 in five and swept their last three European games 10-0 combined. Why they won’t: A defence that still gifts bundles of shots (45 in the last three matches) can be exploited by the elite forwards left in the field.

Paris Saint-Germain (6.7 %) Why they will: Ten of last season’s final XI remain; 4-0 v Atalanta, 7-2 v Leverkusen and back-to-back 5-0s in Ligue 1 hint the old swagger still exists. Why they won’t: Ousmane Dembélé has one UCL goal on 2.3 xG and only recently crossed 1 000 minutes; if the reigning Ballon d’Or holder stays cold, so may PSG’s repeat hopes.

Chelsea (5.8 %) Why they will: Cole Palmer has re-ignited—12 goal involvements in 2025-26, eight in his last six—under Liam Rosenior’s unbeaten domestic run. Why they won’t: Transition defence remains a sieve: 0.21 xG per shot conceded in the league phase, 19th in the Premier League, and Arsenal just torched them for 0.27 across two legs.

Inter Milan (5.3 %) Why they will: Under Cristian Chivu they have become “more Inter than ever,” tightening a defence that carried them to two finals in three seasons. Why they won’t: The source text cuts off before the counter-argument is listed, leaving the Nerazzurri’s vulnerability unwritten—for now.

And the dreamers? FK Qarabag, Bodo/Glimt, Benfica and Club Brugge all live on. For them, the miracle is already halfway written; for the giants above, the next mistake could be the last. Over the next 3 ½ months, four knockout ties stand between 24 hopefuls and European immortality. In a competition engineered for drama, every team has a reason to believe—and a reason to fear.