Every Club’s Route to Champions League Final Ranked From Easiest to Harstr

The last-16 draw has split the Champions League bracket into two wildly unequal paths to the 30 May final, with one side of the knockout tree loaded with heavyweights and the other offering a far gentler descent toward Istanbul. Below is a club-by-club assessment—strictly using the information released after the draw—of who faces the smoothest ride and who must scale a mountain range of giants.

1. Arsenal Rewarded for topping the league phase, the Gunners were placed in the “Blue Path” and will meet Bayer Leverkusen in the round of 16. A quarter-final against the winner of Sporting CP v Bodø/Glimt follows, and the semi-final would pit them against one of Barcelona, Atlético Madrid, Newcastle United or Tottenham Hotspur. No tie is a formality, yet no tie is against the competition’s superpowers either.

2. Atlético Madrid Diego Simeone’s side dodged the big names and drew a Tottenham team described as being in “truly disastrous form.” A last-eight meeting with either Newcastle or Barcelona looks manageable, and the only heavyweight they can meet before the final is Arsenal—who beat them 4-0 earlier in the campaign.

3. Barcelona Barça avoided Paris Saint-Germain in the first knockout round and instead face Newcastle, a side they have already beaten this season. A quarter-final against either Tottenham or Atlético is hardly a death sentence, and they cannot meet Manchester City, Liverpool, Chelsea, Bayern, PSG or Real Madrid until the final.

4. Newcastle United The Magpies must first get past Barcelona, but if they manage that upset they would then face Atlético or Spurs—both considered favourable match-ups. A potential semi-final against Arsenal is difficult yet not insurmountable, and the super-clubs remain on the other side of the bracket.

5. Sporting CP The Portuguese surprise package avoided Real Madrid and drew fellow over-achievers Bodø/Glimt. A likely quarter-final with Arsenal is acknowledged as probably the end of the road, but reaching the last eight would still constitute success.

6. Bodø/Glimt The Norwegian champions have already eliminated Manchester City, Atlético and Inter (twice) to reach this stage, so a last-16 tie with Sporting is deemed winnable. A quarter-final with Arsenal would follow, but their path is still rated kinder than the “Silver Path” alternatives.

7. Tottenham Hotspur Spurs’ domestic woes translate into slim European expectations. Even if they overcome an out-of-form Atlético, a quarter-final against Barcelona or Newcastle awaits, and the wider draw offers no obvious escape route.

8. Bayer Leverken An inexperienced squad must upset Arsenal to stay alive. Should they achieve that miracle, a quarter-final with either Sporting or Bodø/Glimt is eminently winnable, but the round-of-16 hurdle is viewed as insurmountable.

9. Liverpool The Reds avoided Atlético but landed on the “Silver Path.” After Galatasaray, they would almost certainly face PSG or Chelsea in the quarter-finals, followed by one of Bayern, Real Madrid, Manchester City or Atalanta. Their domestic underperformance adds to the difficulty.

10. Paris Saint-Germain A last-16 rematch with Chelsea—who routed them earlier in the campaign—starts a treacherous run that would likely include Liverpool in the quarters and then one of Bayern, Real Madrid, Manchester City, Atalanta, Chelsea or PSG themselves in the semis.

11. Chelsea The Blues have the same post-round-of-16 trajectory as PSG but must first get past the Parisians. Liverpool would then loom in the quarter-finals, with Bayern or Real Madrid among the probable semi-final opponents.

12. Bayern Munich Bayern should edge past Atalanta, yet a quarter-final against either Real Madrid or Manchester City is already pencilled in. A semi-final would then bring Liverpool, Chelsea, PSG or Galatasaray—every option a heavyweight duel.

13. Manchester City City must first beat a Real Madrid side they defeated in the group stage, but victory would likely set up a quarter-final with Bayern. After that, Liverpool, Chelsea or PSG would await in the semis. No easy rounds, no breathers.

14. Real Madrid The 15-time champions are underdogs against City in the last 16, and even if they progress they would face Bayern next, followed by another giant in the semi-final. A 16th crown would require three consecutive takedowns of Europe’s elite.

15. Galatasaray The Turkish giants would have preferred Spurs but drew Liverpool instead, with the second leg at Anfield. Should they spring that surprise, PSG or Chelsea would follow, and then one of the super-clubs in the semis.

16. Atalanta Having already staged a dramatic comeback to eliminate Borussia Dortmund, Atalanta now meet Bayern. Even a seismic upset would simply pitch them into a quarter-final with either Real Madrid or Manchester City, making their road the hardest of all.