Dropping Kepa would have been brutally pragmatic. It's odd Mikel Arteta didn't do it

Wembley, Sunday – When the teamsheet landed 90 minutes before kick-off, the only real surprise was between the posts. Mikel Arteta, a coach who has spent six years cultivating a reputation for cold, unsentimental choices, elected to start Kepa Arrizabalaga ahead of first-choice David Raya in the Carabao Cup final against Manchester City. By full-time, that decision had swung from magnanimous to costly: Arsenal were beaten 2-0, the opening goal born from Kepa’s failure to deal with Rayan Cherki’s cross, the second a header from Nico O’Reilly four minutes later that sealed the trophy for City.

Arteta’s explanation afterwards was framed in moral, not tactical, terms. “I have to do what I feel is right, which is honest and which is fair,” he said. “He’s played all the competition… it would have been very, very unfair for him and for the team to do something different.” The manager denied promising Kepa a start, insisting players must “earn it”, yet the selection felt pre-ordained as a reward for five cup appearances rather than a cold assessment of who gave Arsenal the best chance to lift silverware.

History suggests Arteta is usually immune to such sentiment. In 2021-22 he dropped Bernd Leno, who had featured in every previous round, for Aaron Ramsdale at the semi-final stage. Christian Norgaard started the first three ties of this season’s competition, then disappeared for the semi-final and beyond. Goalkeepers, it appears, have been placed in a separate category, perhaps because their opportunities are so scarce: Kepa and third-choice Tommy Setford have yet to play a minute of Premier League football this term, making cup starts precious currency.

The numbers, however, pointed to Raya. The Spaniard ranks among the league’s most reliable claimants of high deliveries and is integral to Arsenal’s build-up, repeatedly drawing City’s press before finding team-mates in tight pockets. Kepa, by contrast, looked uncertain from the outset, racing rashly at Jeremy Doku and earning a booking, then misreading the flight of Cherki’s centre to allow O’Reilly the simplest of finishes. It was the third time the 29-year-old has taken centre stage in a League Cup final for all the wrong reasons: in 2019 he famously refused substitution before Chelsea lost on penalties to City; four years ago he blazed over from 12 yards as Liverpool triumphed at Wembley.

Arteta argued that “errors are part of football”, yet the identity of the error magnified the gamble. Guardiola, meanwhile, demonstrated the alternative path, leaving European champion Gianluigi Donnarumma on the bench and handing James Trafford a clean sheet without drama. City’s collective display was superior in every department, but Arsenal might have weathered the storm with surer handling at the first hurdle.

Long-term, the manager may still feel vindicated. Kepa, a £71 million capture by Chelsea in 2018 and a 13-cap Spain international, has started all eight of Arsenal’s domestic cup fixtures this season, helping them into the FA Cup quarter-finals. Loyalty could buy continued depth at a position where competition is fragile. Yet the immediate cost is a first trophy of the campaign surrendered, and a fresh question mark over Arteta’s willingness to wield the axe when the stakes are highest.

If Arsenal return to Wembley in May, the sentimental streak may be shorter. On Sunday, pragmatism would have been brutal – and, on the balance of play, probably decisive.