Do some clubs get easier FA Cup draws than their rivals?

By The Athletic’s Data and Tactics Unit

London — Every January the FA Cup third-round draw triggers the same debate in pubs and on timelines: “We always get the short straw.” Conventional wisdom says the gods of the velvet bag conspire against certain clubs while sprinkling stardust on others, but is there any truth to the suspicion that some teams repeatedly dodge the heavyweights?

An analysis of every tie involving the 20 current Premier League clubs since 2010-11 suggests the suspicion is only half-correct. Using league position at the time of each round as a proxy for strength, the numbers show that while no side is “fixed” with a permanent cakewalk, the distribution of hardship is anything but uniform.

Arsenal, for example, have faced the toughest average third-round opposition over the 15-season sample, their opening foes sitting at a mean position of 24.9 across the pyramid. Three of their last six third-round ties were against fellow top-flight sides, all at the Emirates: victories over Newcastle (2020-21), defeats by Liverpool (2023-24) and a shoot-out loss to Manchester United last term. Manchester United are close behind with an average opponent rank of 26.1.

At the opposite extreme sit Tottenham, long regarded by rival fans as the competition’s luckiest ticket-holders. Spurs’ third-round opponents have averaged a lowly 53.7 league position. Recent memories reinforce the narrative: last season Antonio Conte’s side needed extra-time to see off fifth-tier Tamworth, while two seasons earlier they won 5-0 at eighth-tier Marine. Their luck expired this month, however, when they were paired with Aston Villa and exited 2-1 at home.

Yet a single tie can flatter or flatten perceptions. The broader journey matters more. Chelsea’s run to the 2020 final, where they lost to Arsenal, is statistically the hardest negotiated by any finalist in the period. After comfortable victories over second-tier Nottingham Forest and Hull, Frank Lampard’s side then faced four consecutive top-eight Premier League finishers, including eventual champions Liverpool.

Arsenal’s own route to the 2017 final was among the smoothest: non-League pair Sutton and Lincoln in the fifth and sixth rounds dragged their average opponent rank down to 38.8, though the Gunners still had to topple Manchester City and then Chelsea at the business end.

Manchester City’s 2018-19 triumph looks serene on paper—no top-half Premier League club until the 5-0 demolition of Watford at Wembley—but an alternative weighting system that punishes lower-ranked opposition lifts that campaign to the top of the “easiest path” index. City’s 2023-24 run, which ended in a surprise final loss to Crystal Palace, ranks third-easiest under the same model; they did not meet a single side that would finish in the top five.

Away-day bias can also distort the picture. Leeds United were handed 13 consecutive away ties between January 2016 and January 2024, a sequence so improbable it vexed three different chairmen and two separate EFL inquiries. Their only respite in that span was a 2022-23 third-round replay at Elland Road against Cardiff.

Portsmouth’s 2008 triumph remains the textbook case of a favourable draw translating into silverware. The then Premier League eighth-place side met just one top-flight opponent en route to beating Championship Cardiff in the final, a path that would be envied by any modern contender.

Ultimately, the data confirms what managers privately concede: the draw can shape destiny. “You can only beat what’s in front of you” is the public mantra; in private, back-room staffs pore over league tables the moment the balls are pulled. The numbers show that while the FA Cup remains gloriously unpredictable, some clubs really do walk a gentler road—until the next velvet bag is opened.