Arsenal vs. Manchester City prediction, odds, expert best bets for EFL Cup final on Sunday, March 22

London — When Arsenal and Manchester City step onto the Wembley turf at 12:30 p.m. ET on Sunday, the stakes will stretch well beyond the Carabao Cup trophy they are contesting. The Premier League’s top two clubs meet in a final that could tilt the balance of a season still alive on four fronts for the Gunners and desperate for momentum for the Citizens.

DraftKings Sportsbook lists Arsenal as +125 favorites, with City priced as +240 underdogs and the draw at +225. The total is set at 2.5 goals (over -105, under -125). SportsLine’s 2023 No. 1 soccer handicapper, Jon Eimer, has pinpointed value in those numbers after a 248-234-12 campaign last year that netted +25.93 units. Eimer enters the final on a 2025 heater across the Premier League, Champions League and La Liga, and he sees Sunday’s showdown as a rare case of recent history outweighing reputation.

“These clubs are still in a title race,” Eimer notes. Arsenal lead the league table by nine points, although City hold a match in hand and a final league meeting with the Gunners remains. “Winning this cup will give that club a massive psychological upper hand,” he adds.

Form favors the north Londoners. Arsenal have won or drawn their last six head-to-head meetings with Guardiola’s side since 2023, including a 5-1 rout and a 1-1 draw in 2025 alone. Mikel Arteta’s team arrive unbeaten in 14 matches across all competitions after eliminating Bayer Leverkusen in Europe, while City were eliminated by Real Madrid in the Champions League and held by West Ham in domestic play. Goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma’s absence further weakens the Sky Blues.

“I would never say beating Manchester City will be easy,” Eimer concludes, “but I will say I whole-heartedly believe this is Arsenal's year.”

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