2026 NFL Mock Draft 2.0 Based on Odds: Predicting the Top 10 Picks Following Combine

Las Vegas, NV — With the NFL Combine in the rear-view mirror and April’s draft fast approaching, the betting market has crystallized into a near-consensus at the very top of the 2026 board. According to the latest odds at DraftKings, only one name is being priced as a virtual lock: Stanford quarterback Fernando Mendoza, who sits at an astronomical -20 000 to hear his name called first overall by the Las Vegas Raiders — an implied probability of 99.5 percent. Mendoza, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner and freshly minted National Champion, benefits from a thinning quarterback pool after both Dante Moore and Trinidad Chambliss opted to return to school, leaving the Raiders — long in search of a franchise signal-caller — with an easy decision at No. 1.

The intrigue begins at pick two, where the New York Jets hold the keys to the rest of the top 10. Despite roster needs across the map, oddsmakers do not foresee a quarterback coming off the board here; instead, Ohio State linebacker Arvell Reese has shortened from -115 to -140 to be the second selection, translating to a 58.3 percent implied chance. Reese’s 69 total tackles, 10 for loss and 6.5 sacks in 2025 have positioned him as the draft’s premier defensive commodity. Should the Jets pivot, oddsmakers flag Kentucky edge David Bailey (+135) as the likely beneficiary, projecting him third overall to an Arizona Cardinals defense that finished near the bottom of most pressure metrics last season.

For the first time in this series, the mock deviates from last week’s board at pick four. The Tennessee Titans invested the 2025 season in rookie quarterback Cam Ward, but Ward was pressured on nearly 45 percent of drop-backs behind the league’s lowest-graded offensive line. With the top two teams expected to bypass trench help, the Titans are free to select the draft’s premier blocker at No. 4, though the specific prospect is not yet priced as a clear favorite by sportsbooks.

Further down, betting movement points to two defensive backs cracking the top 10. Alabama safety Caleb Downs, praised publicly by Giants head coach John Harbaugh after a stellar combine, sits +1400 to go second overall and projects to the Giants at No. 5. Ohio State’s Sonny Styles, the biggest combine winner among top-ten candidates, has seen his No. 2 pick odds rocket from +5000 to +1500; the Cleveland Browns, holders of the sixth selection, are expected to continue fortifying a defense that carried them to a wild-card berth last January.

Miami pass-rusher Rueben Bain Jr. slides to No. 7 in this projection after measuring with sub-optimal arm length for the position, a metric that has historically caused several teams to downgrade edge rushers. The Washington Commanders, perennially in need of quarterback harassment, would likely pounce on the ACC sack leader should he remain on the board.

Offensively, the New Orleans Saints are tipped to grab Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love at No. 8. DraftKings lists the Saints at +350 in the team-specific prop for Love’s landing spot, the fourth-shortest price in the market, as 29-year-old Alvin Kamara enters the twilight of his career.

Wide receiver is the presumptive play for the Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs at No. 9. USC’s Makai Lemon dazzled in on-field drills but reportedly struggled in team interviews, raising character flags. Historically undeterred by off-field questions, the Chiefs remain the odds-on club to take a swing on the explosive playmaker.

The top-ten curtain closes with the Cincinnati Bengals selecting Tennessee corner Jermod McCoy. Listed 125-1 to go second overall, McCoy is viewed as this cycle’s second-tier defensive back and would address a secondary that surrendered the sixth-most passing touchdowns in 2025.

With a month of pre-draft visits and private workouts ahead, the odds remain fluid, but the betting market has already stamped its early favorites from Las Vegas to Cincinnati. The only remaining certainty: when the clock starts on draft night, sportsbooks expect Mendoza’s name to echo through the auditorium before any other.

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